Property prices in Darwin are poised for country-leading growth, new report forecasts – realestate.com.au

Darwin’s housing market is expected to lead the country in price increases of 12 to 16 per cent by 2026.

SQM Research’s annual Housing Boom and Bust Report heralded another year of massive growth for the top tier, with Darwin joining Perth at the top of the four capital cities expected to outperform major southern cities.

The report published today highlights NT’s unique economic drivers and the housing market dynamics fueling the boom.

SQM’s base case forecasts a national average increase of 6 to 10 percent for homes in all capital cities by 2026, with Brisbane and Adelaide also doing better, with increases of 10-15 and 10-14 percent respectively.

Darwin was at the top of the report together with Perth

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In contrast, prices would rise by 3 to 6 percent in Sydney and 4 to 7 percent in Melbourne.

SQM Research director Louis Christopher said Darwin’s booming property market was underpinned by solid economic fundamentals, strong first home buyer activity and tight supply.

“After the initial population boom of people escaping southern lockdowns a few years ago, Darwin’s numbers have settled into a more stable rhythm,” Christopher said.

While the area’s population growth lagged behind the national average at 1.3 percent through March 2025, future forecasts target 285,000 residents by 2046.

“Natural growth remains strong with more births than deaths, and overseas migration remains positive, although interstate outflows remain a drag,” he added.

Mr Christopher said the city would benefit from new economic drivers, along with its historic links with the resources sector

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Economically, Christopher pointed to a resilient labor market, with unemployment at 4.2 percent in September, and wage growth also expected to pick up to around 3.3 percent by the end of 2026.

Mr Christopher acknowledged Darwin’s historic links with the resources sector, but highlighted new economic factors.

“Darwin’s housing and home developments still track mineral and energy fluctuations quite closely,” he said.

“Right now, with diamond mine closures hitting hard, the NT economy could see some contraction in 2025, although government spending is holding things up.”

However, the Barossa gas project would be a breakthrough.

The White House in Fannie Bay is Darwin’s most expensive home on the market

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Turning to the housing market itself, Mr Christopher reflected on prices recovering to 16 per cent by 2025, surpassing the forecast 8 per cent increase.

He said falling listings and low vacancy rates are “classic signs of a market gearing up for more upside potential,” creating a “seller’s advantage heading into 2026.”

First home buyers were expected to be a key sales driver, with Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data showing this cohort accounting for a substantial 43 per cent of home loan obligations in the NT, significantly higher than the national average, thanks to strong government support and lower entry prices.

SQM Research Director Louis Christopher

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Mr. Christopher himself offered a more conservative, but still optimistic, personal view beyond the report’s base case.

“I foresee a 5 to 8 per cent gain in Darwin, fueled by Barossa jobs and strong wages, assuming there are no major economic problems.

“This increase will certainly also be caused by buyers of a first home. The risks are currently more on the positive side than on the negative side of our forecasts.”

The study assumed moderate national population growth of about 390,000 people, which translates into demand for about 150,000 new homes.

This one-bedroom apartment in Darwin City is on the market for offers over $500,000

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Although the number of home completions was expected to rise to 180,000, creating a small surplus, underlying demand remained strong.

Interest rates were forecast to remain stable until mid-2026, with one or two 0.25 percent rate cuts likely after that.

Despite an expected slowdown in employment growth and a rise in unemployment to 5 percent, the momentum from the second half of 2025 was expected to continue.