Many NFL gamblers start by looking at individual markets – such as spreads, totals, teasers or props – and questions: “Which spread looks good?” Or “which totals are standing out this week?” This is a bottom-up approach, where you first concentrate on specific bets.
We take a different approach in this room. We will concentrate on one game every week and use a top-down strategy to break it down. This means starting with the larger whole – how teams, players or trends perform – and then find the best ways to apply that information to different gambling markets.
Although some of our bets can focus on traditional markets, such as spreads or totals, we often investigate other possibilities to maximize the value.
As always, we start to act with ourselves in the foundations of the team. Below is a graph of Pff’s Timo Riske, which outlines attacking and defensive layers in the competition to help contextualize where each team is related to the market perception.
Whether it is Timo Riske’s team layers, drive quality statistics or EPA per piece, the data tell a consistent story: the Colts played as an elite attack for three weeks. Indianapolis leads the NFL with a conversion rate of 80% series. Defensively, the unit is about average, although the level of competition (dolphins, sourcecos, titans) has not been particularly stiff.
The rams, on the other hand, are solid on both sides of the ball, although clearly in a layer under the Colts attacking. Despite the inequality on the field, Los Angeles arrives this week as 3.5-point favorites. That is in line with the noise process three games on the field should not be completely overwritten outside the season. The rams have a longer track record of success with Matthew Stafford, while Daniel Jones is largely overwhelming in New York and is now playing on expectations in Indianapolis.
That said, if Indianapolis is really as good as suggesting performance in the early season, it can now be value to support it. If this game were to be played in eight weeks and the Colts had continued to perform at this level, they would probably not be 3.5-point underdogs. That is an important perspective that we lean against here – buying that the Colts are real and can arise as one of the top teams of the NFL.
Yes, most production tricks look good in small samples, but there are tangible reasons to be optimistic about IndianaPolicy. The attack is healthy, the supporting cast is strong and Daniel Jones has played some of his best football in this system. The Colts are in second place in Pff Pass-Blocking figure and forcing cover errors with a top five rate.
As a result, Jones flourishing in a Colts system that is second in EPA per game on in-structure games, which means that efficiency is accompanied by one of the highest pff figures between Quarterbacks. It is not a coincidence – Jones has long been able to work in structure, but has struggled under pressure. In Indianapolis, the environment seems good and his production has exceeded a lot from earlier in his career.
Although the rams present the most difficult test of the Colts so far, there is a specific area of weakness that could play the right in the strengths of Jones-a chance that he is well positioned to exploit.
The rams have difficulty generating perfect coverage, last in the NFL for three weeks, even though they are confronted with violations that are not the best of the competition in forcing errors of coverage. Now they will be confronted with a Colts team that is the top five in that very metric – and one led by Daniel Jones, who has been dominant to start the season.
Daniel Jones is in fourth place in EPA per game on Snaps where the defense makes a coverage error, and he was set up to capitalize again this week. On the other hand, Matthew Stafford has benefited from favorable defensive breakdowns, with the rams in third place in errors with forced coverage. But that benefit could be neutralized by a Colt defense that leads the NFL in perfect coverage speed, which may make it restrictive the production of Stafford.
Although the sample size is limited, Matthew Stafford is the last in the NFL in EPA when they are confronted with perfect coverage. If the Colts can push that coverage ratio of the base of the competition average of 33% closer to the 51% they have generated for three weeks, this can considerably disrupt the offensive rhythm of the Rams.
Although the defense of the Rams has been well engraved so far, they still have to face a test such as these Colts attack. Their previous opponents – the Texans, Titans and Eagles – were not the same level of challenge and Philadelphia rose in the second half last week.
If the Colts are just as legitimate as their statistics suggest in the early season, this is a matchup that they are well positioned to win and one that can reveal the current market value of the rams as blown.
Bottom Line
There is careful optimism around these Colts attack – as long as the most important players remain healthy. If Indianapolis is as strong as suggesting performance in the early season, this matchup seems to be incorrectly priced. Against a Rams defense that can be overvalued at this location, there is value in playing the tails. I can be comfortable here, because a correct reading about the Colts can lead to a multi-score victory.
Bets
- Indianapolis Colts -5.5 (+310 on Fanduel)
- QB Daniel Jones 300+ Passing Werven & 32+ attempts & Indianapolis Colts -4.5 (60-1 on Draftkings)
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