The Baltimore Orioles continued to fill out their rotation last weekend, signing a right-hander Zach Eflin to a one-year contract worth $10 million with a mutual option for the 2027 season. Eflin was traded by the Rays to the Orioles in 2024 and struggled with injuries last year. He threw just 71 1/3 over 14 starts while posting a 5.93 ERA and -0.3 WAR.
Eflin was a first-round pick by the Padres out of a Florida high school in 2012 and eventually established himself as a solid mid-rotation starter with the Phillies at the end of the decade after being part of the trade for Matt Kemp And Jimmy Rollins. COVID and recurring patella problems in his right knee plagued him in 2021, resulting in season-ending surgery, and he missed another three months in 2022 with more issues with the same knee. Despite the setbacks, the Rays saw enough to sign him to a three-year, $40 million contract starting the 2023 season. Eflin suffered a minor back injury and tendonitis in his other knee, but that only cost him a handful of innings, and the result was his best and most durable campaign. He set career highs in starts (31), innings (177 2/3 innings), ERA (3.50), FIP (3.01) and WAR (4.9). Although his numbers dipped a bit in 2024, Eflin was still a quality pitcher whose name was floating around in trade rumors before the deadline.
The Orioles ended up acquiring him that year for three lesser prospects: pitcher Jackson Baumeister and outfielders Matthew Etzel And Mac Horvath. I was a big fan of that trade because it addressed Baltimore’s rotation needs at the time and provided insurance just in case Corbin Burnes left in free agency. ZiPS agreed, thinking the Orioles improved more than any other team against a fairly quiet deadline. Eflin paid off and pitched decently in his Wild Card Series start against the Royals, but the O’s scored just one run in two games, negating their playoff run.
When Baltimore didn’t re-sign Burnes or add another starter to the front line, Eflin entered 2025 as the team’s de facto ace, and things got off to a good start with an opening day win over the Red Sox and three quality starts. But he suffered a lat strain in the third of those starts, against the Diamondbacks, and missed a month of the season. In late June, Eflin returned to the IL due to nagging back pain, which he said he had experienced in each of the previous seasons. He returned 24 days later and made two starts before needing a season-ending lumbar microdiscectomy procedure.
The operation is not expected to have major consequences; In any case, I had the same surgery a few years ago That part of my sore back no longer screams expletives at me on a regular basis – and the hope is that the surgery happened early enough last year so he could have a normal spring training and start the season in the rotation. Of course, there is some risk involved, otherwise he would have signed for more than the one-year, $10 million contract he received. Still, he felt comfortable with the Orioles in every way, and they certainly need all the help they can get in their rotation after last year’s disastrous performance. Eflin’s option is large, at $25 million with a $2 million buyout, and up to $5 million more depending on how many starts he makes in 2026.
ZiPS Projection – Zach Eflin
| Year | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | IS | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8 | 8 | 4.24 | 22 | 22 | 119.0 | 123 | 56 | 19 | 22 | 91 | 98 | 1.5 |
Taking injury risk into account, ZiPS views Eflin as a roughly average starter in 2026 with upside and suggests giving him a $10.5 million deal. Obtaining 2023 Eflin would obviously be the best outcome, but even this projected line would be a major boon to the rotation after last year’s showing.
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Orioles ZiPS hasn’t gone live yet, but I have better access to the projections than most, for reasons you can hopefully imagine, so I went over the O’s rotation based on our current Depth Charts innings.
ZiPS/FG Depth Chart – O’s Rotation
Would this be a great rotation? Absolutely not, but it would be miles ahead of what Baltimore got from its starters last year. These projections would be enough for the Orioles to be true contenders as their offense should be a big plus. I’d probably be more negative about the innings totals across the board — four of the top five pitchers (other than Kremer) have significant injury histories — but that would still leave them with a mid-level rotation. Hopefully this wouldn’t stop the team from going after one of the top starters like Ranger Suarez or Framber Valdezbut this is much better work from the front office than we saw last winter. Rogers, Eflin, Baz and Bradish aren’t veterans trying to cobble together one last respectable campaign; rather, they all have a recognizable advantage that, if capitalized on, could be worthy of an All-Star selection.
In each of the last four World Series, at least one team made a comeback from a very disappointing season. The Blue Jays finished last in 2024, the Yankees were a .500 team in 2023, the Rangers and Diamondbacks were mediocre at best in 2022, and the Phillies were barely in the black in 2021. The O’s have more work to do if they want to be the team to fill that spot in the 2026 script, but signing Eflin brings the Birds a little closer to being able to fill that role.
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