The BMF title, a title born of spectacle and sustained by violence, belongs to Holloway as he earned it with a 5th round knockout at UFC 300. Oliveira is the underdog at 36-11. The betting lines say so. The public money says it. But Oliveira has made a living by being the wrong man to bet against, and the path to victory in this fight is real for him if he follows it.
Here’s how Charles Oliveira can win at UFC 326:
- Close the distance early and avoid lengthy mid-range exchanges
- Force clinch fights and get involved in dirty boxing
- Switch takedowns into submission attempts for five rounds
Which brings Oliveira to the table at 36-11
Oliveira holds the UFC record for most submission wins at 17. He also holds the record for most finishes at 21 and most bonuses at 21. These numbers belong to a fighter who has been active, aggressive and willing to put himself in bad positions to find better positions.
His last appearance was a second-round submission of Mateusz Gamrot at UFC Fight Night in Rio de Janeiro on October 11, 2025. Before that, he defeated Michael Chandler by unanimous decision at UFC 309. He lost to Ilia Topuria at UFC 317 and was knocked out in the first round.
That loss matters. Oliveira could be vulnerable early on if the exchange gets wild. But Holloway and Topuria are very different fighters, and Oliveira’s path to winning this fight depends on recognizing that difference and exploiting it.
Where the odds lie and how bettors read this fight
Holloway opened at -154 on DraftKings Sportsbook and has since dropped to -210 on FanDuel, while Oliveira went from +120 to +162 over the same period. The audience is heavily biased towards Holloway, which on the other hand often creates value for those willing to take on the underdog.
Bettors are following these shifts between sportsbooks and comparison shopping betting offersand shopping for the best song on Oliveira could yield valuable returns if “Do Bronxs” pulls off the upset. The odds can change quickly during fight week, so comparing numbers on different platforms before placing a bet is always important.
Oliveira’s finishing ability is the variable that makes him a living dog for more money. His 21 career UFC finishes mean that any round can end abruptly, and the submission or knockout method of victory carries longer odds that are worth considering at this price point.
The numbers that favor Holloway and why they can be misleading
Max scores 7.24 strokes per minute compared to Oliveira’s 3.48. That’s almost double the output, and on paper it looks like a mismatch. Holloway also defends takedowns at an 84% rate, complicating any wrestling-heavy game plan from Oliveira, whose takedown accuracy sits at 40% with an average of 2.37 attempts per 15 minutes.
However, these numbers describe trends, and trends can be distorted. Holloway’s volume depends on range and rhythm. He likes to stand at mid-range and work behind a powerful punch, mixing combinations during a fight.
He gradually breaks down opponents. He doesn’t have the power to end the battle like Topuria does. That distinction is important because it gives Oliveira time in the fight that he didn’t have against Topuria.
Takedown defense percentage also doesn’t fully measure what happens after a fight goes to the mat. Oliveira doesn’t need ten takedowns. He may only need one clean submission to create a battle that leads to a submission attempt.
A short distance away, Oliveira finds his answers
Vitor Miranda told Sherdog that Oliveira should pursue striking exchanges with Holloway at close range, and the reasoning is sound. Topuria ends fights with single shots. Holloway needs sustained volume.
If Oliveira can close the distance, foul the clinch and threaten with takedowns from that range, he will shorten the fight in a way that is to his advantage.
Oliveira has described his approach as hunting options both on foot and on the ground. That approach worked against Chandler and Gamrot. It failed against Topuria because Topuria punished him before he could get started.
Holloway has faced elite competition throughout his UFC career, but few opponents present the layered submission danger that Oliveira brings. Holloway is hittable. He absorbs attacks at a high rate because his style requires him to stay in the pocket. Oliveira has heavier hands than his punching output suggests, and a single clean shot in the clinch can lead to a takedown or a move to the ground.
The threat of submission changes everything once the fight goes to the mat
Sometimes Oliveira looks vulnerable. Sometimes he seems untouchable. That volatility is part of what makes him dangerous.
If he finds rhythm, he will become one of the most aggressive finishers in the sport.
Holloway has proven durable throughout his career. But he has rarely faced a wrestler who can chain submissions together the way Oliveira does. If Oliveira can secure two or three takedowns in five rounds and keep Holloway on his back for an extended period of time, the threat of submission becomes constant and exhausting.
The winner will have a busy road ahead
Benoit Saint-Denis stopped Dan Hooker in the 2nd round at UFC 325 and immediately called the winner of this fight. The BMF title now carries the momentum and the winner emerges UFC 326 will have no shortage of opponents in waiting.
Oliveira wins this fight by making it ugly, by staying close, by threatening submissions with every clinch exchange, and by refusing to let Holloway get into his rhythm. The numbers are in Holloway’s favor. The ground is in Oliveira’s favor. Five rounds is a long time to keep a fighter from what he wants.
The rest of the UFC 326 card worth watching
The co-main event is Caio Borralho vs. Reinier de Ridder at middleweight. Both suffer losses. Borralho dropped a unanimous decision to Nassourdine Imavov in September, snapping a 17-fight undefeated streak.
De Ridder lost via stoppage against Brendan Allen in October. He has victories over Robert Whittaker, Bo Nickal and Kevin Holland.
The fight feels like an elimination-style fight between two middleweight contenders ranked seventh and eighth.
Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. in bantamweight has clear stakes in the future of the division. Rosas, now 21, became the youngest fighter ever signed by the UFC when he earned a contract for Dana White’s Contender Series in 2022 at age 17. He is 11-1 and has won five of his six UFC fights.
Font is 38, ranked 12th and is coming off a loss to David Martinez that ended a two-fight winning streak. This fight was originally scheduled for Noche UFC in September 2025, but a rib injury forced Rosas out.
Ortega was scheduled to fight Renato Moicano on the main card, but he withdrew due to injury and his replacement has not yet been announced.
Conclusion
UFC 326 isn’t just a striker vs. grappler match. It’s a battle for control – who dictates the distance, who forces exchanges and who dictates the pace.
Holloway’s performance and durability make him the rightful favorite. But Oliveira’s path is clear and specific. He must deny the rhythm, collapse the space and turn every clinch into a threat. He doesn’t need to gain minutes. He has to win moments.
Five rounds is a long time to defend against a submission fighter. If Oliveira can make this fight chaotic and uncomfortable, the BMF belt could change hands.
Frequently asked questions
When is UFC 326?
UFC 326 takes place on March 7, 2026 at T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada.
What is the BMF title in the UFC?
The BMF (Baddest Motherf*****) title is a symbolic championship introduced for high-profile matchups known for their action and toughness.
How can Charles Oliveira beat Max Holloway?
Oliveira’s clearest path to victory is distancing, working in the clinch, mixing takedowns with strikes and threatening submissions for five rounds.
Why is Max Holloway the betting favorite?
Holloway’s striking volume, durability and experience in five-round fights make him a statistical favorite, especially if the fight remains within reach.
Is it likely that this fight will end in the distance?
Considering Oliveira’s finishing percentage and Holloway’s high output style, the match has great potential for a decisive finish.
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