The Nationals expect to have an exciting lineup in 2026, with a combination of proven talent like James Wood and CJ Abrams, young players who have been turning heads like Daylen Lile and Dylan Crews, and relatively unknown commodities like Harry Ford and Brady House. While the lineup will certainly be worth watching this season, it’s hard to say the same about the Nationals’ pitching staff.
According to Fangraphs, the Nationals’ starting rotation and bullpen both rank 30th out of 30 in projected fWAR in 2026. While the starting rotation is only slightly worst, the bullpen is by far the worst in the sport, according to Fangraphs, with its projected combined fWAR of 0.4 trailing 0.7 behind the next-worst unit, the San Francisco Giants.
I discussed the starting options the Nats should bring in before the pitchers and catchers report soon. Now let’s look at some options on the bullpen side to take the unit from terrible to at least tolerable in 2026.
After a tough 2024 season in which the 36-year-old Wilson posted a 5.59 ERA and 4.73 FIP in 46.2 IP, it appeared Wilson’s career was nearing its end. After an effective 2025 in which he posted a 3.35 ERA and a 2.95 FIP in 48.1 IP, it appears the now 38-year-old Wilson still has some juice left in the tank.
One of the things Wilson does most effectively is generate swing and miss, something Paul Toboni wants to add to a bullpen unit that is currently sorely lacking them. In 2025, Wilson posted a 74th percentile chase rate and a 91st percentile whiff rate, good for a 27.5% strikeout rate, which ranked him in the 82nd percentile among all relievers. His fastball and slider are his go-to swing and miss pitches, both with a whiff rate of over 30%, but he will also mix in the occasional cutter and splitter to keep hitters guessing.
While Wilson was right at the 50th percentile in average exit velocity in 2025, this doesn’t affect him as much as others because he excels at keeping the ball on the ground, with a 72nd percentile groundball velocity in 2025, resulting in a strong 72nd percentile barrel velocity (which accounts for both exit velocity and launch angle of a batted ball).
The 38-year-old Wilson seems like a pitcher a contender would have taken a chance on by now, but if his market isn’t where he expected it to be now, the Nationals would have to jump into negotiations and get a deal done. Whether he’s closing games or being a setup guy, Wilson would be a big boost to a currently very shaky bullpen.
Coulombe dominated the first half of 2025 with the Twins, posting a 1.16 ERA and 2.01 FIP in 31 IP with them, before seeing the results disappear in the second half after they were traded to the Rangers, and dealing with a shoulder injury, resulting in a 5.25 ERA and 6.64 FIP in 12 IP for them. The 36-year-old market has been quiet this season, giving the Nats an opportunity to swoop in and give him a situation where he will have virtually unlimited attempts to figure out what he was doing in early 2025.
Coulombe has been nothing but consistent throughout his big league career. He has posted an ERA below 3 every year since 2022 and an ERA above 4 only once since 2017, resulting in a career ERA of 3.35. One of the biggest reasons for his success is his ability to limit the barrels, whether that’s by minimizing hard contact or keeping the ball on the ground.
Coulombe doesn’t throw hard and ranks in the sixth percentile in fastball velocity in 2025, but that doesn’t matter because his primary pitch is actually his cutter, which he throws with great success 40% of the time, with a 36.4% whiff rate and .291 xwOBA with the pitch in 2025. Off the cutter, he relies on a variety of pitches to get outs, with sinkers against lefties and sweepers against righties are his other favorite pitches.
While results in 2025 lagged near Barlow’s periphery, with a 4.21 ERA and a 4.70 FIP in 68.1 IP, there are reasons to believe he can be more effective and possibly even breakout in 2026, the kind of pitchers the Nationals should be completely over in free agency by now.
One thing Barlow did extremely well in 2025 was limiting hard contact, with an average exit velocity of 96 percent and a hard hit rate of 99 percent. He also did an excellent job keeping the ball on the ground, with a 60th percentile groundball rate, which resulted in a 66th percentile barrel rate. He also generated plenty of swing-and-misses in 2025, with an 87th percentile whiff rate and a 67th percentile strikeout rate overall.
So if Barlow both limited hard contact and got swing-and-misses in 2025, why weren’t his results better? The problem Barlow suffered from was walks, and he gave up a lot of them, with a 14.9% walk rate in the bottom 1st percentile among relievers in 2025. Hitters had a hard time doing damage with Barlow’s stuff, but as long as they worked enough, there was a good chance Barlow would beat himself to them.
While the running issue may be enough to drive contenders away from the 33-year-old Barlow, the reason the Nats should take a chance on him is that it was a blip year for him in terms of that issue, as it was a 2% jump in walk rate from 2024 to 2025. With the right coaching, there is the potential for Barlow to regain control of the walks, which could make him an extremely effective piece out of the pen for Butera to utilize.
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