January 10: Now that most of Chicago is focusing on the Heart bears On Saturday night, the Cubs tried to steal a little bit of the spotlight by agreeing to a five-year, $175 million free agent contract. Alex Bregman. In doing so, the Cubs land MLBTR’s fifth free agent to take over at the hot corner.
Bregman, a Boras Corporation client, is beating down the contract offers he received last offseason. His new contract, the third largest in Cubs history, includes a full no-trade clause but lacks opt-outs. The deal also includes significant deferred money.
When last season’s proposals fell short of Bregman’s expectations, he turned to a heavily delayed three-year, $120 million deal with the Red Sox. The quality of his 2025 season, plus the fact that he was not eligible for a qualifying offer this time, led to this long-term deal.
MLBTR projected a six-year, $160 million contract for Bregman in November. In the end, he came in a little shy of that over a five-year term, if delays were taken into account. It’s still the largest average annual value in Cubs franchise history.
For the Cubs, the addition of Bregman is the biggest splash of an active offseason. The club has acquired a young starter Edward Cabrera from the Marlins three days ago, boosting the rotation at the expense of a top-50 prospect in Owen Caission. The Cubs have largely rebuilt their bullpen with five free agent signings: Phil Maton, Hunter Harvey, Caleb Thielbar, Hobby MilnerAnd Jacob Webb. They also retained swingman Colin Rea and entree Shota Imanaga.
Bregman gives the Cubs a major offensive upgrade without losing a draft pick, as he turned down a qualifying offer from the Astros in 2024. His salary brings the team’s projected payroll for 2026 to $231 million, a full $25 million more than last year’s $206 million, according to Grid source. Meanwhile, their 2026 CBT payroll is about $243 million, putting the Cubs just under the first luxury tax threshold. The Cubs haven’t exceeded the CBT in 2025, so if they go over that in ’26, they’ll be in the lightest tax bracket.
Bregman, 31, played in 114 games with Boston this year, making 495 plate appearances. Although he missed a month and a half with a right quad strain, he continued to excel on offense, hitting .273/.360/.462 and hitting 25% better than average per wRC+. After posting a career-low 6.9% walk rate in his final year with the Astros, Bregman increased that to 10.3% in 2025. He maintained his reputation as a high-contact hitter, with a 14.1% strikeout rate in the 88th percentile. His average exit speed of 93 mph and his 44.4% hard-hit percentage were both career-bests. He also continued to perform well defensively, earning 3 Outs Above Average for his work at third base. Overall, Bregman’s contributions in 2025 totaled 3.5 fWAR and his third career All-Star nomination.
A lot of that stemmed from his scorching first two months. At the time of his injury, Bregman had a 156 wRC+ through 226 PA. His production after his return was more uneven. He posted a 128 wRC+ in July, followed by a 108 wRC+ in August and just a 76 wRC+ in September. In the first half, Bregman was 52% better than average according to wRC+. In the second half he was around average.
While he wasn’t his usual self in the final two months of the year, Bregman’s long track record still made him one of the top free agents in this year’s class. Since debuting with the Astros in 2016, he has hit .272/.365/.481 with 209 home runs and a 133 wRC+. His first two All-Star appearances came in 2018-19. Bregman averaged 8.1 fWAR and finished in the Top 5 in AL MVP voting both years, finishing second in 2019.
Although he hasn’t reached those heights in the years since, Bregman is still a well-above-average hitter. He has posted a wRC+ between 117 and 137 every year from 2020 to 2025. Bregman’s defense also held up. Since the beginning of 2020, he is worth 10 DRS and 17 OAA. He ranks eighth among qualified third basemen in that span according to OAA.
That track record, Bregman’s stellar clubhouse reputation and his still-stellar 2025 generated widespread interest in free agency. The Red Sox were clearly interested in a reunion, and recent reports indicated that they had made him an “aggressive” offer. Outside of them and the Cubs, his known suitors included the Tigers, Diamondbacks and Blue Jays (before they signed Kazuma Okamoto). The Tigers and Cubs were also interested in Bregman last season. Detroit reportedly offered him six years and $171.5 million, albeit with a significant delay. Chicago’s offer was in the four-year range of $115 million. A year later, the Cubs spent more than $40 million more to sign him, even considering the surprise deferred money.
Bregman was likely looking for a $200 million guarantee during the 2024-2025 offseason. He got a total of $215 million on paper, although deferred money on both contracts likely nets him a little less than an actual $200 million. Either way, returning to the market after exiting a short-term deal is a strategy we’ve seen Boras successfully execute with Bregman. Carlos Rodon, Blake Snell, Matt ChapmanAnd Pete Alonso in recent years with Cody Bellinger serve as the next test case.
With Bregman at third base, the player with the most impact on the Cubs’ roster is the incumbent third baseman Matt Shaw. As a rookie, Shaw posted a .226/.295/.394 line in 437 plate appearances, good for a 93 wRC+. Taking into account his serviceable defense (-1 DRS), Shaw was worth 1.5 fWAR in 2025. That was acceptable production for the rookie and former top prospect, although there are clear areas for improvement heading into his second season. Shaw’s average exit velocity and heavy hit percentage were in the third and seventh percentiles, respectively. He also struggled with fastballs, with a run value of -6 against sinkers and a value of -1 against four-seamers.
Shaw came through the system as a middle infielder before moving seriously to third base in 2024. Dansby Swanson And Nico Hoerner occupy the short stop and second base spots on the big league roster. Swanson is under contract until 2029 and won’t be leaving anytime soon. Hoerner has been an above-average hitter and excellent defender over the past four seasons, totaling 17.5 fWAR. Hoerner moved to second base in 2023 in deference to Swanson.
With the 28-year-old Hoerner eligible for free agency after 2026 — with his earning potential likely to get a boost from his ability to play shortstop — his name has surfaced in trade rumors this winter. The best Cubs team of 2026 has Hoerner at second base and Shaw in a useful role in the field, but it is at least conceivable that both players could start this season.
For Red Sox fans, the past seven months have presented a painful series of events at third base. Rafael Devers was dealt to the Giants in a surprise blockbuster in June, and now Bregman is gone as well. The Red Sox, the only team to sign a major league free agent this winter, could turn to the team Bo Bichette if they don’t think about it Marcelo Mayer enough in third place. However, Bichette has never played third base, and chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has yet to sign a free agent for more than Bregman’s three years (which only lasted one year).
Jon Heyman of the New York Post first broke news of the signing, with ESPN’s Jeff Passan add terms and Bob Nightengale of USA Today provide further details. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that the deal includes deferred money.
#Cubs #sign #Alex #Bregman