If one word comes to mind when reading a recent one Trade proposal from HockeyBuzz the connection has been lost between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Edmonton Oilers. Not necessarily between the teams, but between reality and feasibility.
The proposed deal involves Toronto trading Morgan Rielly (with $2.5 million retained) to Edmonton for Andrew Mangiapane and a conditional second-round pick that upgrades to a first if the Oilers win the Cup. On paper it is bold and logically formulated. In practice, it falls apart under even mild control.
Why the Leafs and Oilers trade idea is quickly falling apart
Start with the obvious: money and term.
Rielly is 30, signed a contract for $7.5 million through 2030, and has a full freedom of movement clause. Keeping $2.5 million brings his earnings down to $5 million, which while not egregious for a player of his caliber, is still something the Oilers can’t afford. Not to mention, it’s asking the Maple Leafs to commit to five more seasons, which is a huge long-term commitment for a Leafs team that already practices cap gymnastics every summer.
Doing that to acquire Mangiapane — a previously productive but now wildly inconsistent mid-range winger — makes little sense, especially if the return doesn’t meaningfully address Toronto’s biggest needs.
Then there is value. Even if Rielly is no longer Toronto’s undisputed No. 1 defenseman, he remains their most proven puck-moving blueliner with playoff experience and leadership ability. Guess what the Oilers have? Puck-moving defensemen. Between Evan Bouchard and Jake Walman, the Oilers are already investing time and energy in another puck mover in Alec Regula, and just acquired Spencer Stastney. What Edmonton needs are more shutdown blueliners who can play steady, reliable defensive minutes.
The oil companies have other priorities
Asking the Oilers to hire another puck mover and mess with their already tight salary cap situation is a tough sell. For the Leafs, moving that player to a winger and a conditional pick, in a market where defensemen are at a premium, would sell low. Oh, and the Oilers don’t have a pick until 2026. That would mean the first won’t be a pick until 2027 at the earliest.
Granted, in this trade the Maple Leafs are trying to land a first-round pick, but the stipulation only creates that scenario if the Oilers win the Stanley Cup. Those are long odds, despite the Oilers reaching the Finals in two consecutive seasons.
Rielly would undoubtedly help Edmonton’s transition game, but the Oilers have other holes and questions that need to be answered first.
If the trade was Mangiapane, Regula and Mattias Janmark, plus a second-rounder to the Leafs, for Rielly and $1.675 million retained by Toronto, the Oilers might want to do it. But why would the Leafs want so many spare parts from Edmonton?
This assumes Rielly even waives his no-move clause to make the deal work.
Edmonton may be in “all-in” mode, and if there are long-term health concerns for Walman, they may see this as an intriguing combination. That said, Toronto is not in disassembly territory. Reactionary trades based on pressure, not leverage, cause teams to lose years and win no trophies.
Interesting thought exercise? Certainly. Realistic NHL trade? Not even close.
Next: Insider says Oilers have an interested buyer in a Mangiapane trade
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