The Washington Capitals were an enigma for most of the 2025-2026 season, but as we hit the penny, they appear to be heading in the right direction. American Thanksgiving is traditionally the time to assess a team’s likelihood of making the playoffs. For the 13-9-2 Capitals, who currently sit third in the tightly packed Metropolitan Division, a return to postseason play should be possible.
The Capitals started the season strong with six wins in their first eight games. A 7-1 loss on October 25 to the Ottawa Senators began a four-game losing streak. Washington defeated the St. Louis Blues 6-1 on November 5 and then went 3-4-0 in their next seven games. In their last four games, the Capitals recorded decisive victories against the Montreal Canadiens (8-4 on November 20) and Columbus Blue Jackets (5-1 on November 24), a 4-3 win against the Winnipeg Jets on November 26, while suffering a closely contested loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning (5-3 on November 22).
October was a strange month for the capitals. They led the league for a number of weeks with fewest goals allowed, while lagging near the bottom in terms of goals scored. Goaltender Logan Thompson led the NHL in several statistical categories, but could not get any support from his offense. The Capitals dominated possession five-on-five, but had one of the worst power plays in the league. To end the month, Pierre-Luc Dubois suffered an abdominal injury in the Halloween game against the New York Islanders that will keep him out of the lineup for the coming months.
The battle with the special teams of the capitals
In their season-opening loss to the Boston Bruins, the Capitals went 0-5 on the power play, setting the tone for the first quarter of the season. The power play is just over 15% and ranks 27th in the NHL. In 2024-2025 they finished 13th, with a score of 23.5%. Alex Ovechkin, the NHL’s all-time leading scorer in power play goals (327), has scored just one goal on the man advantage this season despite playing in both the first and second units in most games.
Despite scoring two power play goals against the Canadiens on November 20, the Capitals were terrible on the man advantage. In a 5–3 loss to the Lightning on November 22, the Capitals went 0–6 on the power play.
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‘We don’t make plays’ said Tom Wilson. “We’re not making simple plays. We’re not moving. It’s probably a little too predictable. At the end of the day, it comes down to us, all 10 guys. You just have to make better plays. When you get the puck, you have to get it to the next guy’s tape. We can’t pass the problem on. And it seems like we’re all just throwing it around right now. We just have to play with a little more confidence and find a way to solve it.” I mean, it costs us games. So it’s clearly not good enough.”
The penalty kill has also struggled, with a kill rate of 72.7% – ninth worst in the NHL. In the 2024-2025 season, the Capitals killed nearly 10% more penalties. They have allowed more than one power-play goal in four games this season, including three in games against the Senators and Pittsburgh Penguins.
Strong defensive efforts by the capitals
Despite a shaky start, the Capitals have been a strong defensive team – at least at even strength. They rank eighth in the NHL with 64 goals allowed. They have allowed an average of 3.33 goals per game, which ranks sixth in the league. At five-a-side they are third in goals allowed.
The Capitals have done a great job of balancing offensive defensemen with more shutdown types. Martin Fehervary has once again shown speed, tenacity and physicality, allowing partner John Carlson to enter the game and activate from the blue line. Matt Roy has done the same for his partner Jakob Chychrun. With many of the forwards slumping offensively, Carlson and Chychrun are tied for second on the team with 22 points each.
Last season the second line, centered by Dubois, was very effective in shutting down the opposition’s top scorers. With Dubois out of the squad, head coach Spencer Carbery is struggling to find a replacement. Only recently has rookie Justin Sourdif found success on the line with Aleksei Protas and Wilson, using his speed and high level of competition to drive play.
Thompson led the league in goals-against average and save percentage for several weeks, making a strong case for why he should be included in the Canadian Olympic roster. Although he has returned to earth recently, he has fallen out of the top ten in most statistical categories. Thompson and his goaltender, Charlie Lindgren, have combined to become the seventh-best tandem in the league.
Capital letters lack consistency in scoring
Wilson leads the team with 23 points, followed by Carlson, Chychrun and Ovechkin with 22 points each. Protas, Dylan Strome, and Connor McMichael are all underperforming in terms of scoring, and every forward’s shooting percentage (except Wilson’s) is down significantly from last season.
The Capitals have had opportunities, but have struggled to finish them. They were five against five near the top of the league in the percentage of expected goals, the percentage of shot attempts and the number of risky chances. Still, the team is 6-1-0 in their last seven games, and their offensive numbers are trending upward.
Ovechkin is starting to warm up again and Protas, Strome and McMichael are showing signs of revival. Ryan Leonard is tied for fifth with all NHL rookies in the points tally. Sonny Milano, who was robbed often earlier in the season, has dropped to the bottom six, where he provided some attacking spark. The one player who continues to struggle at an alarming rate is Hendrix Lapierre, who has yet to score a goal and has been on the bench a lot this season.
Capital projections and forecasts
Even as they slumped, the Capitals’ underlying numbers, especially at five-on-five, were good. If they can figure out special teams, they will compete for the Metropolitan Division title again.
If the Capitals are able to reach the playoffs while healthy, with Dubois returning to anchor the second line, they will be dangerous, but an injury to a key player, especially one with speed, could be their downfall. Last season, Fehervary’s absence was very noticeable in the Capitals’ second-round game against the Carolina Hurricanes.
The goals are starting to come and the shooting percentages are starting to increase. Protas and McMichael’s numbers from last season will likely be difficult to replicate, but they are certainly on an upward trend. With Nic Dowd currently injured and Lapierre struggling, the Capitals need to find some consistency in the bottom six. Sourdif has earned his coach’s trust and once Dubois returns, look for him to anchor the third line. The capitals appear to have weathered a difficult start, but optimism has returned to the country’s capital.
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