- A more conservative approach in the first quarter: The previous eight players to reach the Super Bowl at age 25 or younger in their first three seasons had just one turnover-worthy play in their first 15 Big Game minutes.
- Drake Maye must be careful not to hold the ball for too long: As Jared Goff showed in Super Bowl 53, there may not be much open if the Seahawks deploy seven coverage defenders and let Maye read the field.
Estimated reading time: 16 minutes
On Sunday, Drake Maye becomes the fourth quarterback under the age of 25 to appear in a Super Bowl in the PFF era (since 2006). During this time, we have a total of eight examples of a quarterback leading his team to the Super Bowl within their first three NFL seasons.
We revisited these Super Bowl performances to see if we could spot trends among younger, less experienced signal callers participating in the biggest game on the football calendar.
There are obvious advantages to having an experienced quarterback as you reach this stage of the season. Most exude a sense of calm and comfort that no young quarterback can provide — no matter how relaxed Maye appears as he trots out to New England’s opening drive on Sunday. But we shouldn’t dismiss the positive youthful quarterbacks that often convey their older counterparts.
Remember, this will be the first Super Bowl in Patriots history where they can take a viable lead on the quarterback. Maye is by no means a dual-threat quarterback in the same way Josh is All or Lamar Jackson, but it was his legs that carried the Patriots over the line in a dogfight AFC Championship Game in Denver. The Patriots will allow their young star to call his own number again in critical time if the situation allows.
One thing that stands out most when revisiting previous young quarterbacks playing in Super Bowls is how safely they navigated the first quarter of action. These quarterbacks combined for just one turnover-worthy play in the first quarter (via Patrick Mahomes in his Super Bowl debut) – a turnover-worthy play rate of 1.5%. All the more experienced Super Bowl quarterbacks have nearly doubled that at a rate of 3.7%.
The youngsters’ combined average target depth in the opening quarters was just 7.2 metres, which is low but not unusual in itself. After all, it makes sense to give your young quarterback an easy start in the biggest game of his career. However, things get very interesting after the first quarter ends.
In the second quarter and beyond, the average target depth of these young quarterbacks jumps to 37.7 feet. For context, the average target for the entire league this season (excluding the first quarters) was 8.5. These players really hit their stride once they were a quarter of the way through Super Bowl action.
The results of releasing these players were mixed. In Mahomes’ case, his pair of second-half interceptions and three sacks opened the door for the 49ers, who just couldn’t take advantage. Meanwhile, when Jalen Hurts attacked the field in Super Bowl 57, he delivered one of the best performances of his entire career. In the end, Mahomes won while Hurts lost, proving it will come down to much more than just Maye on Sunday.
The Seahawks’ offense of late suggests Maye will have to go broke and take risks in this game to keep pace, but the Patriots’ defensive chances remain relatively unknown in this game. Until we see Klint Kubiak’s unit firing on all cylinders, there is no reason for Maye to start using hero ball in the early going.
Overall, the best performance by a young quarterback in modern Super Bowl history was delivered by Russell Wilson, as his Seahawks dominated the Broncos 43-8 in Super Bowl 48. Wilson completed 72% of his passes, with 8.2 yards per attempt and a passer rating of 123.1 – all of which rank in the top 10 Super Bowl performances in the PFF era.
The worst result is undoubtedly Jared Goff’s Super Bowl 53 loss to the Patriots, when his high-flying Rams offense produced just three points. Goff finished the game with a PFF grade of 49.2 – the fourth-lowest of any Super Bowl quarterback in PFF history.
In particular, Goff struggled mightily against New England’s standard four-man pass rush at just 3.4 yards per attempt, while Bill Belichick’s creative use of his seven coverage defenders stunned the young quarterback, holding the ball for an average of more than 3.3 seconds. Drake Maye has several examples this season of holding onto the ball for so long, including three of his last four regular season games.
We know Mike Macdonald has the expertise to come up with a game plan as devastating as Belichick ever did, and Maye’s tendency to hang on to the ball has already hurt him during this playoff run. No quarterback has ever recorded more sacks during a playoff run leading up to a Super Bowl than Maye (15).
We’ve gone this far in the article without mentioning Sam Darnold. Despite having 100 NFL starts under his belt, while also spending a season on the bench at the stadium hosting Super Bowl 60, this remains uncharted territory for Darnold.
The harsh reality is that Darnold will have to deliver on Sunday to finally put aside claims that he “can’t get it done” at the most important moment. Super Bowl 60 is the culmination of his legacy project that began last season in Minnesota.
The ‘Same Old Darnold’ footage that flooded every online platform following the capitulation of last season’s wild card round should not be forgotten. It’s a story that could rear its head again if Darnold has a hand in the Seahawks coming up short on Sunday.
It’s a shame because Darnold’s performance in the NFC Championship Game — where he returned the favor for his struggling defense after taking advantage of their elite play all season — already disproved whatever narrative was left for the vast majority of rational football fans.
Most will tell you that Darnold has more to lose on Sunday, and there is no right or wrong answer, but people with this opinion usually say that the 23-year-old Maye will almost certainly appear in a Super Bowl again at some point in his promising career.
Of course, the same was said about 23-year-old Dan Marino when he was defeated in his first Super Bowl. Marino never returned. Likewise, those who claimed Joe Burrow would become a Super Bowl mainstay in the 2020s after his sophomore loss are starting to get worried.
Nothing is guaranteed, especially in the ever-stacked land of AFC quarterbacks. To me, that’s what makes this Super Bowl special. When we’ve watched Tom Brady and Mahomes play in Super Bowls over the years, we knew those games as just another chapter in a long, overwhelmingly successful story. But in Darnold’s case, the opportunity to right a poor performance from next Sunday may never arise again.
Despite all the trends, data points and historical parallels, the Super Bowl still has a habit of defying our preconceived conclusions. Some rookie quarterbacks rise immediately, others learn the hard way and some never get the opportunity again.
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