The $10 million guarantee consists of a $5 million salary, a $3 million signing bonus and then a $2 million buyout on the mutual option. As a reminder, mutual options are almost never exercised by either party, so Eflin’s deal is for all intents and purposes only a one-year pact. There’s some serious bonus money involved, as both Eflin’s buyout and option will increase by $1 million if he makes at least 15 starts, then by $1.5 million if he makes 20 starts, and a final increase of $2.5 million if he meets the 25-start threshold. The mutual option buyout can therefore amount to a maximum of $7 million.
Baltimore has been linked to several top-level free agent pitchers this winter, and the O’s also just pulled off a notable trade to land a pitcher with front-line potential Shane Baz. The 32-year-old Eflin could slot into the back of the rotation, especially given his uncertain injury status. Eflin underwent back surgery in August that involved a fairly extensive recovery period of four to eight months. The fact that he has now signed a contract after four months may indicate that his rehabilitation is going smoothly.
Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun hears from a source that the Orioles hope Eflin can “makes his season debut early in the competition year,” with his ramp-up process beginning “early in Spring Training.” Once Eflin is done, he will be the fourth or fifth starter in an expected rotation that includes Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish, Daan Kremerand Baz. Tyler Wells was lined up at a rotation spot but could shift into a bullpen or swingman role once Eflin returns. Albert Suarez is another swingman candidate, plus Cade Povich, Chayce McDermottAnd Brandon Young are further rotation depth options in the upper minors.
If Baltimore still wanted to make an impact by signing or trading for a proven ace, signing Eflin likely won’t be an obstacle. Given the number of injuries the Orioles rotation has suffered in 2025, it’s no surprise that the team wants as much depth as possible to both cover innings and deliver quality results moving forward.
Eflin’s own injury problems contributed to the Orioles’ health woes, as lat and back injuries last year resulted in three separate stints on the injured list for the right-hander. Eflin was limited to just 71 1/3 innings across 14 starts, and he struggled to a 5.93 ERA and a 16.2% strikeout rate. However, the righty’s 4.2% walk rate was still excellent, and since much of Eflin’s damage came from a spike in his homer rate, his SIERA of 4.49 was more respectable than his real-world ERA.
This isn’t the first time Eflin has been plagued by injuries, as the right-hander battled lingering knee issues earlier in his career with the Phillies, though he posted solid results when healthy. In what was considered a significant outlay for the low-budget Rays, Tampa Bay signed Eflin to a three-year contract worth $40 million during the 2022-2023 offseason, and he ultimately posted the highest two innings totals of his career through the first two seasons of the deal: 177 2/3 IP in 2023, 165 1/3 IP in 2024.
Durability was aided by a 3.54 ERA, 3.5% walk rate, and 23.1% strikeout rate over those 343 innings, though Eflin’s K% dropped significantly from 26.5% in 2023 to 19.6% in 2024. With the Rays always looking to cut the budget and reload with younger talent, Tampa dealt Eflin to the Orioles on the 2024 deadline, with the O’s absorbing all remaining money from Eflin’s $11 million salary for the 2024 season and his $18 million salary for 2025. Although his 2025 campaign was a failure, Eflin pitched big time for the Orioles in 2024 to help the team reach the postseason.
Tampa Bay was the only team publicly linked to Eflin’s market this winter, but instead he is now returning to another of his former teams in his attempt for a rebound season. The Orioles know the right-hander’s health situation better than any other club, and the upside is obvious if Eflin can return to his old form. At the time of his season-ending surgery, Eflin was also quite vocal about his desire to return to Batlimore free, and now his wish has come true.
Eflin’s $10 million commitment brings the Orioles’ 2026 payroll to about $147.3 million, according to Grid source. Since the O’s completed the 2025 campaign with a payroll of approximately $160.1 million, there is still more room to spend for a team that has already pulled off one of the winter’s blockbusters. Pete Alonso contract. Baltimore could spend further on a free agent starter like Ranger Suarez or Framber Valdezor perhaps find themselves back in the depths of the minor leagues for another major trade.
Bob Nightengale of USA Today was the first to break the news of Eflin’s one-year pact with the Orioles. Jon Heyman of the New York Post had the $10MM guaranteed, and Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner reported that the details of the mutual option. Robert Murray of FanSided had the salary specification and information about the bonus structure.
Inset photo courtesy of Gregory Fisher – Imagn Images
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