- RB Javonte Williams, Dallas Cowboys: Over 15.5 rushing attempts (-128) — The Commanders will likely play from behind in this game, which should open up additional opportunities for Dallas to lean on the run game. It’s a scenario Washington has faced many times this season and is struggling to cope with, ranking 29th in EPA allowed per rush.
- RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions: Under 34.5 receiving yards (-115) — The Vikings’ blitz-heavy scheme has led to more running back pass protection snaps than any other defense in the NFL (177), and no defense has allowed fewer yards per game to running backs this season. In the first meeting, Gibbs recorded almost as many pass protection snaps (15) as he had routes run (17) and finished with just 3 receiving yards.
- RB Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs: Under 37.5 rushing yards (-112) – The Broncos defense is one of the NFL’s most effective run-stuffing units, ranking in the top three in rush success allowed at 26.2% (third), yards per carry on designed runs allowed at 3.6 (third) and a favorably rated run-play rate of 68.5% (first).
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Game overview
While none of these NFC East foes have playoff aspirations, pride will be on the line in this divisional matchup. In the first meeting between the Cowboys and Commanders this season, the Cowboys unleashed their offensive firepower and challenged Washington to keep up, winning comfortably by three scores and moving past the narrow 1.5-point spread.
For this matchup, the Commanders get their top receivers back after being absent from the previous meeting, but they will now have to lean on Josh Johnson under center after losing Marcus Mariota to injury. That doesn’t bode well for Washington’s chances of keeping pace with Dak Prescott and a Cowboys offense that ranks in the top five in offensive success rate at 38.4% and has a 28.0% touchdown drive rate.
RB Javonte Williams, Dallas Cowboys: Over 15.5 rushing attempts (-128)
Javonte Williams played a key role in the Cowboys offense. Despite Dallas passing on 62.8% of his plays, Williams ranks seventh in carries per game this season. That’s a credit to the 69.3 plays per game this offense averages, the highest mark in the NFL.
Dallas’ offensive pace has been particularly impressive, as it has made the most plays with 15 or more seconds left on the play clock this season at 335, while only one other team has exceeded 225.
The Commanders will likely play from behind in this game, which should open up additional opportunities for Dallas to lean on the run game. It’s a scenario Washington has faced many times this season and is struggling to cope with, ranking 29th in EPA allowed per rush.
Game overview
The Lions are fighting to keep their slim play-off hopes alive, with the odds currently standing at just 4%. A loss would effectively end their postseason aspirations, and the Vikings are positioned to play spoiler, as they did in the first meeting.
When these NFC North rivals faced off in Week 9, JJ McCarthy returned to the lineup and helped the Vikings to a three-point win on the road despite coming in as a 9.5-point underdog. Much of the credit went to the defensive side of the ball, as Minnesota held Detroit to one of its worst rushing performances of the season, allowing a positive EPA on just 19% of runs.
The backup quarterback theme continues on Christmas Day, with the Vikings set to start undrafted rookie Max Brosmer under center. The freshman quarterback has struggled in limited instances this season, with Minnesota averaging just 3.7 yards per play when Brosmer has been on the field.
That will be difficult to overcome against a Lions offense that ranks at the top of the league in several key metrics, including yards per play of 6.2 (second best in the NFL) and a touchdown drive rate of 32.7% (third best).
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions: Under 34.5 receiving yards (-115)
Spotlighted by PFF betting analyst Ben Linsey as his favorite prop on the Christmas Day list, this match presents a stylistic challenge to Jahmyr Gibbs’ host production. While Gibbs is one of the NFL’s most explosive players with the ball in his hands, Minnesota’s defensive approach could limit his opportunities out of the backfield.
Per Linsey: “The Vikings’ blitz-heavy scheme has led to more pass-protection snaps being run back than any other defense in the NFL (177), and no defense has allowed fewer receiving yards per game to running backs this season. In the first meeting, Gibbs logged nearly as many pass-protection snaps (15) as he had routes run (17) and finished with just 3 receiving yards.”
Game overview
For the first time in almost a decade, the Kansas City Chiefs won’t win the AFC West. A win at the Broncos would put Denver one step closer to completing the circle and regaining the division crown for the first time since 2015. It doesn’t stop there, though, as this Broncos team also has its sights set on No. 1 in the AFC. With little room for error and a fierce rivalry in play, you can bet that both teams will give their best.
Previously buoyed by its defense, Denver has emerged offensively down the stretch, especially through the air. Bo Nix and company have generated positive EPA in each of their past five games, making them one of only six teams to produce positive EPA on more than 50% of their passes since Week 11.
Conversely, the Chiefs have taken another big hit at quarterback and now have to turn to their third passer in three games in Chris Oladokun. To make matters worse, Kansas City could be without its biggest threat as Rashee Rice has yet to clear concussion protocol.
RB Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs: Less than 37.5 rushing yards (-112)
The Broncos defense is one of the NFL’s most effective run-stuffing units, ranking in the top three in rush success allowed at 26.2% (third), yards per carry on designed runs allowed at 3.6 (third) and a favorably rated run-play rate of 68.5% (first).
Since the point spread for this matchup is more than two scores, it’s unlikely the Chiefs will have many opportunities to lean on the ground game. This problem is compounded by the near-even workload split between Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt, with Hunt having a slight edge in terms of volume. That has made it difficult for Pacheco to generate consistent production as he has failed to surpass 35 rushing yards in each of his four games since returning from injury.
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