The basketball gods can be cruel at times, and their callousness was on full display Monday night. Nikola Jokic suffered a knee injury late in the first half of the Nuggets-Heat game that looked serious at the time it happened.
According to ESPN’s Shams Charania, Jokic has strained his left knee and will miss at least a month, which is good news considering the alternatives. However, the injury has completely turned the NBA Most Valuable Player race upside down.
Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are the two players with the best chance of winning the award. Jokic is a fixture on the voter rolls every year because of the mind-boggling numbers he puts up, which somehow keep getting better every season. Gilgeous-Alexander, the reigning MVP, is easily the best guard in the NBA and the best player on the best team we’ve seen since the Warriors during their run in the 2010s.
Jokic was close to overtaking Gilgeous-Alexander as the favorite before the injury, but now Jokic has been removed from the board at every sportsbook and Gilgeous-Alexander is a -450 favorite to win. Gamblers may be tempted to find value elsewhere, but they should be careful.
If Jokic misses just four weeks, as Charania reported, he would be out for 16 games for the Nuggets, meaning he could only miss one more game for the remainder of the season and be eligible for the 65 games played rule.
There’s really no one with a strong enough case to compete with Gilgeous-Alexander right now.
Luka Doncic (+375) and the Lakers have a good track record, but just had a team meeting because their coach thinks no one is trying hard enough.
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Cade Cunningham (40/1) has an interesting case with the Pistons leading the Eastern Conference entering the new year. He is averaging points (26.5), rebounds (6.3) and assists (9.6), and last game ranks second in the NBA. As good as he is, he’s still a level or two below the SGA, and the Pistons would need to finish first in the East to really have a strong case.
Victor Wembanyama (50/1) has burst onto the scene this season and his Spurs are unbeaten against the Thunder this season. His case for MVP was made in the NBA Cup semifinals, when he helped the Spurs snap the Thunder’s 15-game win streak.
In his first game back on the floor, Wembanyama was a plus-21 in 21 minutes off the bench and stifled the Thunder as soon as he came on. His problem, like Jokic’s, will be the games played. He has already missed twelve games due to injury and could approach the 65-game threshold over the course of the season.
Jalen Brunson (66/1) will get a lot of pressure from coach Mike Brown to become MVP, but he should maintain the tremendous numbers he has put up over the past ten games: 32.2 points per game on 49.2 percent from the floor and 42.7 percent from deep. If the Knicks continue to win in that scenario, his case would be as good as the other players mentioned, but I don’t think it’s strong enough.
Right now there is no value in the MVP market, but just as quickly as things changed on Monday night, things could change again in the near future.
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Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He is a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and martial arts. He spends his winter weeknights looking for NBA player prop benefits with more money.
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