Bitcoin supply in gains sets the stage for a bullish cross in the first quarter of 2026

Bitcoin continues to struggle below the $90,000 mark, reflecting a market that has failed to regain bullish momentum after weeks of consolidation. Repeated attempts to reclaim higher levels have stalled, reinforcing growing skepticism among analysts who are now openly discussing the risk of a broader bear market that will extend into 2026. Sentiment remains fragile, dominated by caution and reduced risk appetite, as traders await clearer confirmation of the next directional move.

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Still, not everyone is convinced that the bullish cycle is over. Some investors argue that Bitcoin is entering a transition phase rather than a complete trend reversal. According to on-chain analyst Axel Adler, the current setup of Bitcoin’s ‘Supply in Profit’ metric provides important context.

Adler highlights that profit supply has fallen sharply from October highs above 19 million BTC to around 13.5 million BTC after correcting from all-time highs. This drop pushed the short-term 30-day average well below the 90-day average, leaving a gap of approximately 1.75 million BTC.

While a similar configuration appeared in 2022, before an extended bearish period, Adler notes a key difference this time: the 365-day moving average remains historically high. Importantly, the 30-day average appears to have reached a local low in mid-December and is beginning to stabilize.

Adler argues that if Bitcoin can maintain current price levels or higher, this stabilization could provide the initial foundation for a renewed bullish phase later in 2026.

The supply of profits signals a critical turning point

Axel Adler also shared a forward-looking forecast chart that tracks the convergence between the 30-day and 90-day moving averages of Bitcoin’s Supply in Profit metric, providing a potential roadmap for the next structural shift. The model extrapolates current rates of change to estimate when a bullish configuration – defined by the SMA 30 moving above the SMA 90 – could emerge.

According to Adler’s analysis, the gap between these two moving averages is currently closing at a rate of about 28,000 BTC per day. Importantly, this convergence is not driven by a sharp supply recovery in earnings, but by a mechanical decline in the SMA 90.

With the peak values ​​of October, when supply in profit reached 19 to 20 million BTC, moving outside the 90-day calculation window, downward pressure on the longer average provides a temporary “tailwind” for convergence. This effect is expected to last until the end of January.

If current conditions persist, Adler expects a possible bullish cross formation between late February and early March. However, the forecast remains very price sensitive. The elasticity of supply over price is estimated at 1.3x, meaning that a 10% drop in price could cause a 13% drop in supply in profits.

The $70,000 level is forecast to be crucial. Below that, the SMA 30 would likely fall faster than the SMA 90, debunking the convergence thesis and reopening a long-term 2022-style recovery scenario.

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