MLB Mailbag: Rodriguez-Ward Trade, Qualifying Offers

This week’s mailbag is going out Grayson Rodriguez–Taylor district trade, the four eligible offers accepted, the trade value of Jarren Duran And Wilier Abreuand much more.

Nick asks:

Hey, why does Mike Elias think he’s selling low on Grayson? Ward is a good, not great hitter, and Rodriguez’s ceiling is ace. You guys have been calling for a Singer-Ward trade and I feel like four years of Rodriguez, even with his injuries, would be a lot more value than one year of Singer.

Zach asks:

Really, what about trading Grayson Rodriguez?!?

In making this trade, Orioles president of baseball operations and GM Mike Elias made a big bet against Rodriguez.

When the Orioles drafted Rodriguez 11th overall out of high school in 2018, the club was a few months away from replacing Dan Duquette with Elias as head of baseball operations. So Elias was not involved in that choice, but he is very familiar with Rodriguez’s career and health history.

Once one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, Rodriguez’s injuries began with a Grade 2 lat strain in 2022 that cost him three months and delayed his expected major league debut. He was healthy in 2023, had some success in the Majors, totaling 165 innings — the only time in his career he’s surpassed 117 frames.

Rodriguez missed 19 days in May 2024 with shoulder inflammation and saw his season end on July 31 that year due to what was initially termed a mild lat strain. No one could have imagined that a hot start against the Blue Jays would close the book on Rodriguez’s Orioles career before his 25th birthday.

The big righty would have entered 2025 unrestricted and claimed he was not injured when his velocity dipped in spring training. But in March he was diagnosed with elbowitis, which was exacerbated by a new “mild lat strain” in April. It was initially thought that Rodriguez would return in the second half, but he suffered elbow problems during rehabilitation and was shut down. After multiple opinions were gathered, Rodriguez’s 2025 season ended with right elbow debridement surgery on August 11.

As Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun reportedElias described Rodriguez’s health this way in late September: “There’s nothing medically to indicate he won’t be ready, and he’s very determined and not happy with what happened last year.” Elias expressed some caution, but ultimately said, “I’m optimistic about the situation.” The procedure involved removing bone chips from Rodriguez’s elbow.

Rodriguez spoke to reporters yesterday. Here’s an excerpt from it Jeff Fletcher of the OC Register:

Rodriguez said he is ‘absolutely’ confident he can throw a full season this year. He said the bone spurs have been a problem for ‘three or four years’ and he believes they led to the lat injuries. ‘Just because I can get those out, my arm feels great right now,’ Rodriguez said. ‘There’s no doubt in my mind that I’ll be ready for spring training.’”

I’m looking for an explanation as to why the pitching-needy Orioles would trade a pre-arbitration mid-rotation starter with 238 2/3 pretty good big league innings to his credit and four years of team control left for one year of what at best looks like a 2.5 WAR outfielder.