Islanders’ Matthew Schaefer is unique in NHL history – The Hockey Writers New York Islanders Latest news, analysis and more

The New York Islanders have found a gem. Sure, we’re in the early stages of this new season, but the No. 1 pick of the 2025 NHL Draft, Matthew Schaefer, is a runaway favorite for the Calder Trophy. Should his production continue, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him pick up a few Norris Trophy votes.

His campaign so far has been impressive enough, but if Schaefer had been born a few weeks later, he would have been eligible for the 2026 NHL Draft. As a September-born, 18-year-old player, he is one of a kind.

Schaefer joins an exclusive list

In NHL history, only nine September-born 18-year-olds have recorded at least five points. according to QuantHockey. Schaefer is already on that list with seven in as many games. In fact, if he can score two more points (something he could do in his next game), he would be the highest scoring defenseman in that group. A month into his rookie campaign, he was on his own.

Of this group, only two have finished as Calder Trophy finalists: Jordan Staal (2006-2007, third place) and Nathan MacKinnon (2013-2014, first place). Schaefer is ready to become the third. He does a lot more than score points, which will be discussed later in this piece, but the numbers are already historic.

Is Schaefer’s scoring system sustainable?

Because it is still early in the season, the sustainability question is high. Is Schaefer’s point-per-game pace too high to maintain, or is he already such a powerful scorer? Let’s look at the numbers, courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.

There are two metrics I like to use for sustainability. The first is on-ice shot percentage, which measures the percentage of shots a player has on the ice that go into the net. It’s kind of like normal shooting percentage, but on a larger scale. The other is the individual points percentage, which shows how often a player gets points for the goals he is on the ice for.

Through seven games, Schaefer has a shooting percentage of 15.29% in all situations on the ice. If that sounds like a big number for a defenseman, that’s because it is. Among defensemen who had at least 500 minutes of ice time last season, that would have put him first by a wide margin: 85^e percentile was about 12.00%, for context.

There’s no telling where Schaefer will be at the end of the season, but he’ll likely be on the above-average end of that scale. As the quarterback of the Islanders’ power play, combined with the talent, let’s just say he does indeed finish in the 85^e percentile with a 12.00% shooting clip on the ice.

Now, for the individual points percentage. Schaefer has been on the scoresheet for 53.85% of the goals he has been on the ice for, which ranks 11th^e on the Islanders. This seems a lot more sustainable, but is that true?

Under the same group of defensemen last season, Schaefer would have been in the 95^e percentile. So it’s not a figure that will decrease, but it most likely will. Let’s use the 85^e again a percentile: an individual point percentage of approximately 45.00%.

Here is the moment of truth. If we use this 85^e percentile stats for the remainder of the season, all else remaining the same, Schaefer would finish the 2025-2026 season with approximately 56 points in 82 games.

Take that projection with a grain of salt. The assumption here is that every shot will be equalized and that the Islanders will maintain 12.14 shots on goal per game with Schaefer on the ice. But if he finishes with 56, that would put him within nine points of tying the all-time record. When a defender gets that close to Brian Bellows, a border Hall of Fame forwardthat would be quite an achievement.

Beyond the numbers: Why Schaefer’s run is historic

Points are nice. But what Schaefer does on the ice outside of these totals is even more fun.

Related: Matthew Schaefer is already proving he’s the Islanders’ defenseman of the future in rookie season

Bo Horvat may lead the team with nine points, but the Islanders’ MVP is the 18-year-old. Schaefer is an incredibly gifted skater and puck mover, allowing him to do basically anything he wants on the ice. He is a reliable flow player, who helps his team leave the defensive zone and enter the offensive zone without headaches.

Schaefer is already a true two-way threat. He ranks second among Islanders defensemen in expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (via Natural Stat Trick), and he ranks third on defense in the entire league – only Cale Makar and Lane Hutson have more points.

Schaefer played only 17 non-international games in his draft year. Since he was injured during the World Junior Championship in December 2024 (he was Team Canada’s second-youngest player, by the way), it was a battle for are this season in the NHL. But he has passed the stats and eye tests with flying colors and is ready to be the Islanders’ franchise player for years to come.