BTC Freezes at $90,000: Has Bitcoin Entered a Gentle Correction or a Hidden Bear Market?

Market experts warn that BTC is teetering between a mild correction and a potentially deeper bear phase.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is stuck around the $90,000 level, which has sparked renewed debate about where the market is headed as the end of the year approaches.

According to analyst Axel Adler Junior, the cryptocurrency is in a rare holding pattern: technically in a correction, but still far from the deep declines that have historically defined entire bear markets.

$90K range stoppage

In his final analysis, Adler says said that Bitcoin’s current maximum correction is around -32% from its all-time high. This is milder than the -60% to -80% declines we have seen at the end of major cycles since 2011. In previous cycles, a steady break below -40% served as a gateway to a much deeper decline, but Bitcoin has not crossed that threshold in the current 2025 cycle.

This positions the market in an unusual middle zone, where the correction is undeniable, but its severity does not match previous bearish extremes. Figures on unrealized losses further confirm this picture. Adler explained that only 12% of the supply is currently making a loss, while an overwhelming 88% of coins continue to make a profit.

Even the recent local peak, which saw about 17% of supply in the red, is dramatically below historical capitulation levels, where roughly 60% of supply fell underwater during previous cycle bottoms. Such limited unrealized losses indicate strong resilience among bondholders and suggest that this downturn looks more like a mid-trend correction within a broader bullish super cycle than the terminal phase of a bear market.

However, the same strength also comes with risks because so many holders are still making profits. Therefore, any negative trigger could accelerate profit taking and push the decline deeper. Adler argued that Bitcoin effectively balances between two possible paths. If the correction remains above the -35% zone and unrealized losses remain moderate, this would strengthen the case for a structurally “flatter” market shaped by institutional demand and continued supply constraints.

But a drop above -40% would greatly increase the likelihood of a classic bear cycle, opening the door for declines of -60% to -70% and a more severe capitulation phase. For now, Bitcoin’s frozen price action signals this delicate balance. The next big step will depend on whether the declines continue to deepen and whether unrealized losses start to rise towards historically important thresholds. These signals will decide whether Bitcoin remains in a mild correction or transitions into a classic bear market.

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Bearish flag alert

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez too warned that Bitcoin could be preparing for a deeper correction after observing a potential bearish flag formation. The 12-hour chart shows BTC consolidating within a narrower ascending channel after a sharp downward move. This is a classic continuation pattern that often leads to another leg lower.

Martinez noted that if this pattern breaks, the technical target is around $70,000, indicating a decline of over 22% from current levels.