Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC’s Next Big Move Is Coming: Breakout or Breakout Is Coming?

Bitcoin remains stuck in a tightening range just above the $80,000 mark. Despite the recent rebound from sub-$85,000 levels, the overall market tone is still cautious. There has been no meaningful breakout and sentiment has not yet turned bullish.

BTC Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The daily chart

On the daily time frame, the price is still trapped in the broader descending channel that has been active for the past few months. BTC recently rose from the $81,000 support zone and has since printed a series of higher lows. However, any push is limited to around $95,000, right below the channel’s upper boundary and the main bearish order block.

The asset is now trading below both the 100-day and 200-day MAs, which are trending lower around $107,000. This is a clear sign that buyers are still fighting the macro trend. Unless there is a strong daily close above $96K, the structure remains bearish to neutral.

The 4-hour chart

Zooming in on the 4H chart, BTC forms a clear ascending triangle between $80,000 and $95,000. This type of structure often resolves to the upside, but only if volume and momentum support the breakout. Right now, breakout attempts near $94K keep getting rejected.

There is a tightening between the trendline support and the horizontal resistance, and the price is approaching the top. So a breakout or breakdown is likely within the next few sessions.

Buyers would like to see a clear break above $95,000 with volume focusing on the $100,000 zone. Sellers, on the other hand, would be looking for a break below the rising trendline, targeting a retest of $85,000 or even the critical $80,000 area.

Analysis in the chain

Bitcoin Exchange Reserve

Data on exchange reserves paints a more interesting picture. BTC reserves on exchanges continue to decline sharply, now reaching multi-year lows around 2.75 million BTC. This generally suggests that long-term owners are not interested in selling and supply is drying up.

However, this has not yet translated into price strength. The difference between falling reserves and sideways price action shows one thing: demand is still not strong enough to push prices higher, despite low exchange supply.

This could be because institutional flows and private interest remain weak at current levels, or because capital is sitting on the sidelines waiting for macro clarity. Until spot market demand picks up, declining reserves alone won’t be enough to spark a sustainable rally.