As camp gets underway, manager Rob Thomson gave a vague timetable for Wheeler’s return. “I don’t think he’ll be ready for Opening Day, but it won’t be far beyond that either,” Thomson told reporters (link via Paul Casella of MLB.com). The 35-year-old right-hander is throwing from flat ground and “doing well” in the manager’s words, but the Phils will clearly be cautious with the three-time All-Star. He did not progress to mound work.
Between Wheeler’s injury and the free agent’s departure Ranger Suarezit is a thinner starting staff than normal. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told reporters (including Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer) they will try to expand that group throughout the spring. “When our scouts go there, that will be one of our focuses. And we can develop that internally as well; there are some guys that we like. But that will be a focus of ours, starting depth,” Dombrowski said.
That doesn’t mean the Phillies are likely to add Zac Gallen, Luke Giolito or Chris Bassitt. It is widely expected that they will bring back their three-year deal JT Realmuto was the last big move in an offseason built around a new signing Kyle Schwarber that also saw them sign a right fielder Adolis Garcia and savior Brad Keller.
There are some potential swing options available in free agency (e.g Jose Quintana, Aaron Civale), although Dombrowski suggested there may be opportunities on the trade front. He noted that the relatively slow-moving free agent market for starting pitchers could yield some fringe weapons for the signing teams via trade – although that could certainly be countered if teams start losing pitchers to injuries, as happens every year during Spring Training. A trade would also give the Phillies some additional roster flexibility if they can add someone with options remaining. Most free agents have more than five years of service that gives them the right to decline a minor league assignment.
Assuming Wheeler starts the season on the injured list, Cy Young will be second Christopher Sanchez should get his first Opening Day start. He is followed in the rotation by Jesus Luzardo And Aaron Nola. Taijuan hiker worked in a swing role last year, but seems more or less assured of a season-opening rotation spot.
That leaves fifth place in a camp battle. Top prospect Andreas Schilder has a legitimate chance of winning the job. Philly had to add him to the 40-man roster this offseason because he was Rule 5 eligible. His stock has dropped a bit since the days when he was widely viewed as the #1 pitcher in the sport. An elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery cost him the 2023-2024 seasons.
Painter’s numbers at Triple-A Lehigh Valley last year weren’t all that impressive. He gave up a 5.40 ERA with a good but not elite strikeout rate of 23.4% over 22 starts. He proved to be more home run prone than the Phillies would have liked, though his raw stuff remained very impressive. Painter averaged nearly 90 mph with his four-seam fastball while mixing in three breaking pitches (cutter, slider, curveball) and a changeup. He got a strong taste of 13% of his offering. He remains one of the better pitching prospects in the MLB and one of Philly’s top three minor league talents besides shortstop Aidan Miller and outfielder Justin Crawford.
If Painter struggles during Spring Training, the Phils could send him back to Lehigh Valley. However, they don’t have many real alternatives at the moment to hold down the fort until Wheeler’s season debut. Their other starters on the 40-man roster (e.g Johannes Cabrera, Yoniel heals, Alan Rangel) also have little to no MLB experience. Non-schedule invitees Tucker Davidson And Bryse Wilson doesn’t inspire much confidence. Keller has starting experience, but was signed as a high-leverage reliever.
It’s understandable that the Phillies would want to leave the door open for Painter to win the job, especially if they expect Wheeler to return within the first few weeks of the regular season. At the same time, even one more injury would make the rotation look precarious. Nola is having a bad season and Walker’s stint in Philly has been a mixed bag. Wheeler makes no guarantee that he will look the same as he did before surgery. Adding some sort of swing depth is a must.
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