2025 was the second full season in a Braves uniform for Pierce Johnson and the outcome was almost identical to how he had fared in his first full season, and actually his overall tenure since being traded to the Braves. Normally, that would be enough to stick around for another year, especially considering the Braves had a club option on him after the 2025 season. We all know the answer to whether or not Pierce Johnson will stay, but now it’s time to see how he fared in what could be his final go-round with the Braves.
Before the 2023 trade deadline, the Braves picked up Pierce Johnson in a trade that sent Victor Vodnik and Tanner Gordon to the Rockies. After a successful season-ending stint in Atlanta, the Braves and Johnson agreed to a two-year, $14.25 million contract extension with a team option for an additional $7 million ahead of the 2026 season.
What were the expectations?
While it would have been impossible to repeat his opening stint in Atlanta in 2023, in which he posted a ridiculously low 0.76 ERA (17 ERA-, which is also insane) with a more reasonable, but still impressive FIP of 2.83 (66 FIP-), simply approaching those levels would have been a success for Pierce Johnson in 2024. He achieved that with a 3.67 ERA. (89 ERA-) and a 3.61 FIP (91 FIP-). It was also interesting that he managed to maintain that level of performance while seeing his strikeout rate drop from the low 30s for most of his prime to the high 20s after the 2024 season. The expectation for Johnson in 2025 was that he would continue to strike out batters and miss a ton of bats, while doing so in semi-high leverage situations going forward. In particular, he moved up given the absence of Joe Jimenez this season, which could have been a boon to his value if he pitched well – or a curse if he pitched poorly.
Numerically, Johnson entered the 2025 season with a career line of 94/88/90 (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-) – essentially a very solid, if not quite elite reliever. His 2022-2024 season was a bit of a mixed bag, with an injury in 2022 and diminished performances with the Rockies, but still good for a total line of 90/86/81, so there was no reason to expect anything other than “Pierce Johnson, good reliever” for 2025.
Well, things started well enough for Pierce Johnson as he continued to perform at a pretty high level over the course of the 2025 season. Through August 31, Johnson actually posted a 2.15 ERA (51 ERA-) and an FIP of 3.57 (88 FIP-), which would have been right in line with what he had produced thus far during his time with the Braves. That all changed for some reason in September, when he got all fired up and ended his season on a negative note. We’ll talk about that in detail later.
Ultimately, Johnson finished the season with a 3.05 ERA (72 ERA-) and an FIP of 3.91 (97 FIP-). His 98 xFIP- suggests that, unlike many of his teammates, HR/FB didn’t play much of a role in his season. These are still great numbers, but as you can see when you compare to what he had done up until September, that tough last month certainly had an impact. For Pierce Johnson, that was likely the difference between his second straight season of at least 0.5 fWAR and the 0.3 fWAR he finished the entire season with. As such, that represents a steady decline from the 0.7 it reached in 2023. Again, you’d like to see that fWAR number stay above zero, and ideally top 0.3, for relievers, but things could have ended up much higher than what they did for Pierce Johnson in 2025.
Well, his curveball was still pretty solid and his velocity was still there overall. He continued to throw the curveball at a very high rate and he was able to keep the xwOBA against on it up to .291 on the season, which was about the same as it was in 2024 (.298). The xwOBA against on his four-seamer dropped to .302 after being at .308 in 2024, so he certainly still had some good left to offer. His fastball control improved significantly from 2024, as he was able to throw it at the top of the zone much more consistently. Again, we’ll talk about what happened during that disastrous September, but outside of that, Pierce Johnson experienced the usual highs and lows that most regular relievers experience and usually for Johnson, those highs are quite high and the valleys don’t go to the serious lows.
As far as individual performance goes, I’m personally always in favor of relievers playing multiple innings, as that’s not something you see in today’s era where reliever roles are largely written in ink. On April 20, Johnson pitched two innings and also went six-up, six-down with two strikeouts. It wasn’t spectacular, but it’s the kind of performance that has earned Pierce Johnson a fair amount of money over the course of his career. It was especially encouraging considering the tough time he had against Tampa Bay a week earlier, and it was also nice that it helped cap off a rare sweep in the Braves’ favor in 2025.
He also happened to be on the mound for this great blow in extra innings, although the Braves would later lose this game.
I imagine if there’s a reason why the Braves decided to decline the club option on Pierce Johnson heading into 2026, it was because the wheels came off for him in the final month of the season. Johnson made 11 appearances in September, ultimately throwing 8 2/3 innings over that span. As if the innings to appearance ratio wasn’t alarming enough, everything else was. He finished with an ERA of 8.31 (196 ERA-) and a FIP of 5.90 (145 FIP-) during the month of September, which he capped off on September 26 by scoring four hits (including a homer) and four runs against the Pirates. Phew.
It’s tempting to see the small sample size as why the Braves decided to decline his option. That said, two of the things Johnson considered his calling card when it came to keeping the other team off the scoreboard fell off a cliff for him in September: missing bats and then keeping the ball on the ground when he found bats. Johnson entered the final month of the season with a strikeout rate of 25.5 percent. That’s down compared to what he’s historically put up in that department, but at the same time, his 21.4 percent strikeout rate last September is paltry compared to his historical numbers. Additionally, Johnson gave up home runs at a rate of 3.12 per nine innings in September, which was an alarming step up from the HR/9 rate of 0.89 he had posted before September. Again, it’s hard to say that one month is enough to cost you $7 million, but that certainly didn’t help.
When it comes to his appearances outside of September, the obvious candidate here was that one weekend in San Francisco where the Braves walked away twice in two days with Pierce Johnson on the mound for both games. Johnson uncorked a wild pitch in the tenth inning of the first game that led to the Giants celebrating their first walk-off win of the weekend, then Johnson gave up a walk-off homer to Matt Chapman, meaning an incredible performance from Bryce Elder (!!!) was ultimately lost as the two-run shot erased a one-run lead that Johnson had to hold. Pierce Johnson’s departure from the mound after that second game essentially summed up how the entire franchise and fanbase felt about the season at the time.
This was the worst performance WPA-wise for any Braves pitcher all season, and in the bottom 25 for any pitcher’s performance for the year as a whole.
While not necessarily in his control, Johnson essentially benefited from favorable HR/FB at some points, and less so at other times – some of which may have upset the Braves’ feelings about him. With Raisel Iglesias struggling early in the year, Johnson had a line of 63/66/88 through May 22. The low HR/FB generally made him feel like a safe option for higher leverage work when Iglesias was temporarily demoted. But once that happened, Johnson got a line of 114/106/73 over the next thirty days. In other words, he threw better and had much worse results. Even in September the line was 196/145/90 – a disaster, but not really a deserved one.
For now, Pierce Johnson is a free agent after the Braves made the choice to decline his $7 million option for the upcoming season. Considering that Johnson has served as a relatively reliable reliever for most of his career (even despite that long “What went wrong?” part), I’d say it’s safe to assume he’ll continue in that role with some team once Opening Day 2026 rolls around. It certainly would have been interesting to see if there would have been any changes in how Walt Weiss would have used Johnson compared to how Brian Snitker used him. We could still see that, as the Braves can sign Johnson just like any other team. For now, it feels like it’s only a matter of time before someone signs him and he joins another bullpen in a major role.
He projects as a good reliever in the future; his advanced age (he’ll be 35 for most of the 2026 campaign) and the fact that his xFIP continues to rise (an xFIP of 70, 75, 90 and 98 as of 2022) preclude a more favorable forecast. Still, he could easily put together a 0.5 fWAR season or whatever if he avoids the temporary pitfalls of his 2025 campaign.
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