The number of homeowners who are “in the money” for a REFI, rose two weeks earlier by 55%, from 2 million to 3.1 million. That is according to September Mortgage monitor report by ICE Hypotheek technologyreleased on Monday.
The growth comes as Americans continue to be confronted with increasing costs that are linked to the homeowner. In the past five years, for example, ICE reported that interest costs increased by 27%, compared to 23% growth for the main sum of the loan, 25% for real estate tax and 70% for insurance.
The average fixed rate of 30 years for conforming loans, according to ICE, was 6.36%on Monday, the lowest level since October 2024.
“The number of mortgages ‘in the money’ for refinancing was 2 million since mid -August.
Analysts at Keef, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) estimates that 3.7% of the mortgage universe is currently in the money to refinance, based on a stimulus of 50 basic points. If the rates decrease to 6%, another 17.3% of borrowers could refinance with a lower rate.
The FED meets on September 17, with market observers who expect a rate reduction overwhelming. According to the CME group‘s Fedwatch Tool, 88% of interest rate traders expect a reduction of 25 BPS, while 12% see a reduction of 50 BPS.
Futures suggest that mortgage interest can only be fallen modestly. Ice projects 30-year fixed rates up to an average of 6.27% in December and 6.2% in February 2026.
“Although the expectations of the reductions of the Fed Rate during the last few months of 2025 remain about an even division between two and three cutbacks, mortgage Futures prices suggest that markets expect that only a third of those cuts down to 30-year mortgage improvements,” the Ice report said.
According to Walden, the following significant threshold is 6.25%, which would increase the number of mortgages in the money for refinancing to 3.6 million. But the largest threshold is 6,125%, which would put 5 million mortgages in the money for refinancing. That would exceed the levels that were seen last fall, provided that the rates would exceed that barrier, he added.
Housing Main analyst Logan Mohtashami explained that Fed Policy remains an important obstacle for the rates that move sustainably below 6%.
“In the past two years, the return of 10 years of levels of 3.37% and 3.63% has achieved. At those levels we could see the mortgage interest fall under 6% today, especially given the favorable spreads that are currently available. During both periods, the bond market was expected on a recession,” Mohtashami wrote.
“The point here is that we have been here earlier with mortgage interest rate almost 6%, but to go lower, we would need a weaker economy or the Fed Crying Uncle and become Dovish.”
Yet some mortgage experts believe that borrowers should not wait.
“Homeowners waiting for the FED to reduce refinancing rates can now act, because investors are already prices in a lowered rate of September 17 to lower,” said Bill Banfield, Chief Business Officer at Rocket companies. “Even a modest shift in rates can save homeowners tens of thousands of dollars during the life of a loan, while buyers get more purchasing power.”
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