Winners of Noel’s Weekend: Saturday Daily Double Strategy at Churchill Downs

Six gambling tools for beginners

1. Start simple with a simple guide to horse racing betting.
2. Not sure what that word means? Horse racing terminology is a language in itself. Let us translate for you
3. What the heck is a speed rating? This beginner’s guide to speed figures has everything you need to know.
4. Betting on horse racing can be intimidating. Team ABR has put together a number of Do’s and Don’ts for the new fan who is starting to bet on racing.
5. We all make mistakes when it comes to horse racing betting, here are eight lessons learned from experience.
6. Find out in advance how much each bet will cost with our betting calculator, presented by NYRA Bets.

The fall racing season at Churchill Downs is in full swing and the track has put together a great 11-race card for the Saturday before Thanksgiving. The card is headlined by the $300,000, Grade 3 Commonwealth Turf Stakes and complemented by several other high-stakes full-field races. For this weekend’s winners, let’s take a closer look at the Commonwealth Turf Stakes and the previous claims race, which will offer some good opportunities in the daily double. If we can put together the winners of these two races late in the day, we should wrap up a winning Saturday at Churchill Downs. Good luck.

Saturday November 22

Churchill Downs, Race 9, $76,000 purse claims race, after time 4:55 PM ET

Race 9 is a non-winner of two claiming races worth $50,000, offering good daily double odds when combined with the Commonwealth Turf Stakes in race 10. It is also a good betting race in its own right with a field of twelve challengers set to race seven furlongs. What makes this race so attractive to bettors is that the standout in the morning line is overlooked at 6-1. No matter what the sign says, #9 Timing difference is the horse to beat in this area. He ran a promising third two starts ago when he needed a race on his return from a four-month layoff and achieved a speed figure well above today’s competition. He lost last time when he switched to artificial turf and stretched to a mile in an allowance race where he had no chance at Keeneland, but Saturday he’ll be back on the dirt and back in a place where he belongs for an unknown trainer who wins at a high percentage with a small stable. For exactas and trifectas, you can complete your tickets with #8 Good Lord And #10 Colonel Hot. Good Lord has posted relatively solid and consistent speed figures at or near this class level while knocking on the door for quite some time, and Colonel Caliente raced within three-quarters of a length of Good Lord in a race at this distance at Churchill Downs two races ago, following a solid maiden win at seven furlongs in his previous outing. Keep him in your bets despite trainer Mike Maker’s claim last time.

The play: Bet #9 Timing difference (6-1) to win and play him in exacta and trifecta boxes #8 Good Lord (5-1)And #10 Colonel Caliente (8-1). Start a daily double by going to the Commonwealth Turf by keying #9 Timing difference in this race of #2 Troubleshooting, #3 Mechanic, #6 CuffsAnd #9 Flying Mohawk in race 10.

Churchill Downs, Race 10, $300,000 Commonwealth Turf Stakes, post time 5:25 PM ET

This year’s Grade 3 Commonwealth Turf Stakes has produced a fascinating field of 11 horses of 3-year-old turf horses who will race 1 1/16 miles on the Churchill turf track. The field is full of contenders and a few X-factors that will make this race more than a little interesting to watch and bet on. The tepid 7-2 favorite is #2 Troubleshooting who is starting to look like the real deal coming from back-to-back graded stakes wins in the Grade 1 Ainsworth Franklin-Simpson Stakes at Kentucky Downs and the Grade 3 Bryan Station Stakes at Keeneland. This former turf sprinter successfully stretched a mile at the Bryan Station to beat a field that included some of the same challengers he will face in this race. Let’s see if he can handle today’s extra half-furlong in what will be his longest race yet. If Troubleshooting cannot manage the added distance, #3 Mechanic definitely should. Montador has not been worse than second in three straight starts and even the only defeat was by just one head. He is making his first appearance against the stakes of owner-breeder Godolphin, but is clearly on an upwardly mobile career path and should not be overlooked based on solid speed figures and his close-up stalking running style that suits this race perfectly. The big X-factor in this area is who to mention on your tickets #6 Cuffsthe winner of this year’s King’s Plate at Woodbine, the first leg of the Canadian Triple Crown. He has put in a quality season racing on dirt and all-weather surfaces, but this will be his first ever race on grass. Can he do that on grass? Well, he’s certainly capable based on speed, form and skill, and the form on Woodbine’s all-weather surface often holds up when horses switch to the grass. Finally, there will be an X-factor that we will use for the daily double counting #9 Flying Mohawkwho will return from a six-month layoff and has odds of 8-1 on the morning line. Fans may remember him as the runner-up in this spring’s Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park, but actually both of his victories thus far have come on the field.

The play: Bet #2 Troubleshooting (7-2) to win and play him in exacta and trifecta boxes #3 Mechanic (5-1) And #6 Cuffs (6-1).