10-year revenue and mortgage interest
In my forecast of 2025 I expected the following series:
- Mortgage interest between 5.75% and 7.25%
- The return of 10 years fluctuates between 3.80% and 4.70%
Now the 10-year return had a noticeable step on Friday because it traded around 4.34% before Jackson Hole’s comments came out of Powell, and then the bond returns drove to 10 basic points before he closed at 4.26%.
However, we have still not been able to break under 4.18% on the return of 10 years, despite a Dovish attitude of the Fed that the labor market is finally on its thoughts after the last job report. This tells me that the market really needs to see more economic weakness to stimulate yields and rates much lower. In two weeks we will have the last reports of the Jacket Weeks for the Fed to Mull in Mull for their meeting in September. In a special Saturday episode From the Daily Podcast of the Housing Wire, I grab this question about where the mortgage interest rate is going.
Mortgage spreads
If you notice an improvement in the mortgage spreads, take the time to celebrate this, because this improvement has helped reach the mortgage interest this week to reach a year-date lows. I predicted a decrease in spreads from 2024 based on the history of mortgage spreads. In fact, we are touching my target level this week. However, some people in America believe that the mortgage spreads can never improve without the Federal Reserve MortGage-Backed Securities (MBS) and could even deteriorate. These people probably miss a historical perspective on this issue and may belong to a group that always predicts pessimistic Doom.
If the spreads were as bad as at the height of 2023, the mortgage interest would currently be 0.84% higher. Conversely, if the spreads return to their normal reach, the mortgage interest rate would be 0.46% -0.66% lower than today’s level. Historically, the mortgage spreads varied between 1.60% and 1.80%.
The best levels of normal spreads would mean the mortgage interest rate at 5.86 %% to 6.06% today, a remarkable difference.
Application -Buy data
We finally broken at the most important level of 6.64% mortgage interest. Since 2022, every moment has fallen from 6.64% to 6%, the housing data will become better. We have now had three weeks with mortgage interest under 6.64% and all three weeks have been positive from week to week and year-on-year data for purchase apps. The growth from week to week has been mild compared to the growth on an annual basis. Last week the purchase apps had risen from 0.1% from week to week and 23% year after year.
Here are the weekly data for 2025 so far:
- 15 Positive lectures
- 11 Negative measurements
- 6 PLAT PRINTS
- 29 Right weeks of positive data on an annual basis
- 16 consecutive weeks of double -digit growth year after year
Total current turnover
The latest total hanging sales data from Housing Wire data offer valuable insights into the current trends in the demand for homes. Last year we observed a significant shift when the mortgage interest rate fell from 6.64% to around 6%. We have not yet received almost 6% mortgage interest rate, but our total pending sales data have consistently shown a slight growth of the year for a while.
Total current turnover:
- 2025: 376.916
- 2024: 367.527
Weekly pending sale
Our weekly hanging home sales offers a glimpse of week to week in the data; However, this data line can be influenced by holidays and any shocks in the short term. We still show slight growth on an annual basis in this data line. The hanging sales data affect the existing Home Sales Report for 30-60 days.
Weekly pending sales for last week:
- 2025: 66,711
- 2024: 65,267
Weekly inventory data
The surprising situation with regard to the inventory is that we can end up with a negative inventory of the inventory in August. This is unusual, because inventory usually reaches its peak in October and November. In the past two weeks I had hoped to see some recovery in the stock levels, but last week very little growth saw, which resulted in a slow week before inventory.
Now stock growth has risen from 33%on an annual basis to 22%, and this is done without a mortgage interest that falls almost 6%. Yet the best story for housing this year was the stock growth, which has cooled house prices and helped the affordability of housing.
Last week the inventory only rose a little:
- Weekly inventory change (15 August-August 22): Inventory Rose van 860,068 Unpleasant 861,238
- The same week last year (August 16-August 23): Inventory came from 698,161 Unpleasant 704,654
New frame data
The new data data reached its peak before 2025 during the week of 23 May, a total of 83,143 entries. Since that time it is slowly lower. We are in the seasonal fall period and again in 2025-as we saw from 2020-2024, we did not see the seller who for many years predicted so many fake housing experts.
To give you some perspective, during the years of the bubble crash of the house, new entries have been rising between 250,000 and 400,000 a week for many years. Here are the new list data from last week in the past two years:
- 2025: 66,819
- 2024: 64,817
Price percentage
In an average year, about a third of the houses see price reductions, which is a regular part of the housing market. Homeowners often lower their selling prices when the stock levels are rising and the mortgage interest rate remains high. As a result, the percentage of price reductions with more available houses and higher rates is greater than last year.
For my 2025 Price forecastI expected a modest rise in house prices by around 1.77%. This suggests that 2025 will probably see negative real prices again. In 2024 my prediction of an increase of 2.33% turned out to be inaccurate, especially since the rates fell to around 6% and the question in the second half of the year improved. As a result, house prices increased by 4%in 2024. The rise in price reductions this year compared to last year reinforces my cautious growth gursing for 2025. This data growth rate has recently been cooled.
Here are the percentages of houses that have seen the price reductions last week in recent years:
The coming week: inflation, new home sales, awaiting housing sales, house prices and more
We have a busy week ahead with various important economic data releases, including new home sales, awaiting housing sales and house price data. The most important inflation report of the Federal Reserve, the PCE inflation data, will also be released this week. Moreover, we have planned bond auctions and comments from FED members.
Now, more than ever, the critical unemployed claim data will be considerable, because this is the very last line of defense that the Federal Reserve has to keep the policy limiting. This week’s unemployed claim data has risen.
We had a big week after the FED statements in Jackson Hole, but now we know what to look for if we want to see a lower mortgage interest rate. It is all about labor data on inflation.
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