When is the best time to invest a significant lump sum in early 2026?

Most people felt that they had to do something to “make things right” around the New Year. Making wiser financial choices can be very common, especially if they got the bonus at the beginning of the year.

I told a friend that it might not be the best time to bet money at the end of the year (e.g. 2025 now) or at the beginning of the year.

I want readers to note that when I discuss these types of things, we are thinking about it through a lens of implementing larger amounts of money. The amount that will most likely cause you pain if you feel like you made the wrong decision. If we are talking about small amounts of money, I could care less. And when you use dollar-cost averaging, these things matter less, too.

There are seasonal flows where funds sell what may have worked well last year to invest in what may not have worked well last year. In a sense, some profit is being taken, while the net result was slightly down at the beginning of the year.

Seasonally, mid-February, after the third week of the month when options expired, is potentially a weak part of the year. You would see some dips.

You’ll see it this year (before Liberation Day), you’ll see it in 2023, you’ll see it a little in 2022, you’ll definitely see it in 2020 because the COVID crash falls EXACTLY between the options expiry of February (Friday of the third week of the month) through March.

There are seasonal charts like the one you see above of the S&P 500. They collect the price data from many years (in this case the last 20 years) and you can see what the seasonal pattern is. You can see how strong the end-Oct-Nov-Dec period is.

If there’s a window to get in, that’s the dip-in mid-September to mid-October.

Normally there will be more resets at the end of the quarter as many options expire. If the last quarter has been good, the reset will cause him to lose some strong power, and if the last quarter is weak, he will lose some weak power as a result.

You actually have three investment windows, namely the end of March, the end of June and the end of September.

Plenty of options if you feel like you want to get the best time in a more empirical way.

Since the topic for my friend was the money for the new year, we focus more on the better time to put the whole part of your money at the beginning of the year.

And based on this I told my friend that it was better to do it end of Marchgiven what I know.

But I wonder if that is correct….

Below, I help chart the year-over-year price of SPY, the longest-running ETF for the S&P 500 over the past 26 years:

In a sense, not all of our markets are correlated with the US market, but with most of the investment conversation being about the US these days, it may be relevant to determine the appropriate time to bet against the US.

The purple section shows prices at three points of the year:

1. One day before January 1
2. End of March
3. The lowest point between January 1 and the end of March.

This coincides with my idea that:

1. If you want to bet your money, you don’t want to wait too long. A lot of people wait and wait and wait, and before you know it a year has passed.
2. Emotionally or mentally you want to be invested, it’s just that you’re one of the ones who wants to find the sweet spot.
3. And you have money, whether it’s your bonus you got at the end of last year (is that normal?) or at the beginning of the year.

On the right, in the blue color section, measure a price difference to represent the profits and losses:

1. January 1 to lowest: The price difference between the beginning of the year and the lowest point. If you see a negative number, it means there is a lower point after January and before the end of March. If this is positive, January 1 is the lowest.
2. Lowest until the end of March: The difference between the end of March and the lowest point. This number is usually positive. Not really useful.
3. January 1 to the end of March: The difference between January 1 and the end of March. If it is negative, it means that the end of March is lower than January 1. If it is positive, it means that the end of March is higher.

If we look from January 1st to the end of March, only 35% of the time the end of March is negative, which means that if you wait until what Kyith said, which is the end of March, you could end up paying for your investments.

From January 1st to the lowest point, there is a lower point almost 70% of the time.

The average is -8.6% for the years when things are less good.

A better rule might be:

1. It is likely that there will be a lower point in the first quarter, so wait for a lower point to invest.
2. If it gets to that point, maybe 4-6%, just put it in.
3. By the end of March, if there is no option, accept that you are out of luck and invest at a higher level.

This may be wiser.

The problem with lump sum bets is not based on these seasonality

For some with $2 million, which may be 95% of their net worth to deploy, finding an opportune time to invest in the most ideal investment is mentally crucial for them.

I can’t say I don’t understand that. There was a phase when this was crucial for me too.

Until experience tells me to fxxk it, it doesn’t really matter because:

1. I don’t think you can think of how many considerations.
2. If you invest in a globally diversified stock portfolio and invest for 10 to 50 years, you will eventually realize that you are thinking about less important things.
3. Many people fail to bet 100% of what they want to bet during the appropriate period when it occurs because:
   • Mentally there is always a lower low. They need to preserve their capital so they can buy at the “best” price.
   • Everything leading up to this point tells them that they have a low risk capacity, lower than they are usually willing to admit.

As a working person, it is so easy to miss that opportune period even though it seems important to you. The worst part is that if you miss it, it becomes mentally harder to allocate your money!

My rules are basically I have a small window to find a shot to see if you get a better price.

If you can, go all in. If that doesn’t work, you’re out of luck. Just bet.

The more the market rises, the more terrible you will feel. Yes, losing money will feel terrible. Both will make you feel terrible.

I shared with my friend that I understand why they are doing this and that it is not easy, especially since the markets looked treacherous. We can only learn a lesson by dealing with the discomfort because we can say it so easily.

The midterm election years

That said, if you look at the medium-term years:

Medium-term years have seasonally higher intra-year volatility.

With the exception of one year, there is a kind of lower point.

I wonder, even if it were, would anyone dare to bet all their money?

I’ve always felt that “there’s more to come” will always stop people from committing more.

What about the rest of the money?

You either hold it or you have to bet at higher prices. Net-net was it worth it emotionally?

You decide.

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You can read more about my thoughts on Interactive Brokers in this Interactive Brokers Deep Dive series, starting with how to easily create and fund your Interactive Brokers account.

Kyith is the owner and sole writer behind Investment Moats. Readers tune in to Investment Moats to learn and build stronger, more solid wealth foundations, how to pursue a passive investing strategy, learn about investing in REITs, and the basics of active investing.

Readers also follow Kyith to learn how to plan well for financial security and financial independence.

Kyith worked as an IT Operations Engineer from 2004 to 2019. He currently works as a Senior Solutions Specialist at Insurance Start-up Havend. All opinions expressed on Investment Moats are his own and do not represent the views of Providend.

You can view Kyith’s current portfolio herewho uses his Free Google Stock Portfolio Tracker.

His favorite investment broker is Interactive real estate agentsallowing him to invest in securities from various stock exchanges around the world, at very low commission rates, without custody fees, near spot currency rates.

You can read more about Kyith here.