The ACC Championship between the Duke Blue Devils and the Virginia Cavaliers may be the most intriguing of conference championship weekend, as it plays a direct role in determining who fills one of the remaining vacant spots in the College Football Playoff. If Virginia wins, the Cavaliers are likely in the game. If Duke wins, chaos ensues. The action kicks off at 8:00 PM ET on ABC from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Here are my favorite bets for the ACC Championship.
Odds Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Moneyline: Duke +152 / Virginia -180
Spread: Duke +3.5 (-102) / Virginia -3.5 (-120)
Total: Over 57.5 (-115) / Under 57.5 (-105)
Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Cavaliers Best Bet No. 1: Virginia -3.5 (-120)
These teams met less than a month ago at Duke and the Cavaliers wiped the floor with the Blue Devils. UVA outgained Duke 540 to 255 despite two turnovers, rushing for 5.3 yards per carry, while QB Chad Morris threw for 316 yards and two touchdowns. Since then, Duke has defeated North Carolina and Wake Forest, but surrendered 57 combined points in those games. Meanwhile, Virginia took advantage of a bye week after beating Duke and held in-state rival Virginia Tech to just seven points last week.
I’ve tried to see a case being made for Duke, but it’s hard to imagine much would change in this case given the vastly different defenses. Virginia ranks 21st in yards allowed per play and third in third-down conversion rate this season, while ranking in the top 15 in most efficiency metrics on standard downs and pass downs against both the run and pass since early November. Additionally, Virginia ranks second nationally in the amount of destruction caused over the past five weeks. Meanwhile, Duke is outside the top 115 in most major defensive metrics no matter how you judge it, and ranks 118th in chaos allowed since Week 10. How will the Blue Devils keep up with Virginia’s expected score? I don’t see it.
Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Cavaliers Best Player Prop Bet: J’Mari Taylor Over 89.5 rushing yards (-115)
J’Mari Taylor controls the Virginia backfield. His 207 carries are 140 more than his backup, as his usage has skyrocketed. In fact, he carried the ball at least 15 times in all but one FBS game this season – with at least 20 turnovers in four of them.
In Virginia’s last four games, Taylor has eclipsed 90 yards three times — including his 18-carry, 133-yard performance at Duke on Nov. 15. Given the cold conditions expected in Charlotte on Saturday night, expect Taylor to be heavily involved again against this porous Duke defense.
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