Weekly market front views: Nifty shows Beerarish signals; Stay defensive in the midst of resistance near 25,650

The Nifty continued its corrective spell for the sixth consecutive week, a losing streak that was not seen in more than five years because the index drove lower within a relatively narrow reach. Nifty saw the week in a range of 398 points between 24,736 on the higher side and 24,337 at the bottom, which reflects damped volatility and a lack of directive conviction.

India Vix stuck marginal higher by 0.48% to 12.03, indicating that sentiment remains calm despite the long -term weakness. At the closure of the week, the index ended with a net loss of 202.05 points, or (-0.82%).

We have a short week ahead, with a trade holiday on Friday due to Independence Day. The index structure remains weak in the short term. The recent peak near 25,650 marks a lower top, coinciding with a confluence of two important pattern resistors – one from a falling trend line from earlier highlights and another of the upper limit of a wide consolidation channel. This zone now acts as a strong supply area.

The market is still traded under this resistance cluster, with a mild down slope that is visible in the short term averages. Any meaningful benefit would require a decisive outbreak over this confluence; Conversely, persistent trade below 24,200, the progressive average of 50 weeks, can accelerate the corrective leg.

While we enter the new week, the Nifty probably sees a soft or careful start. Immediate resistance levels are placed on 24,500 and 24,850, while supports arrive within 24,200 and 23,950.

The weekly RSI is 49.50. It has formed a new layer of 14 periods, which is bearish, but remains neutral without any divergence at the price. The weekly MacD has shown a negative crossover; It is now bearish and acts under the signal line.

Pattern analysis reveals that the Nifty still respects the downward slope of the previous top, which connects to the lower high formation near 25,650. The index floats under the advancing average of 20 weeks (24,496), and any violation of the average of 50 weeks at 24,203 can invite deeper cuts, making the index weak from the current levels. The inability to erase the resistance resistance, despite several attempts, emphasizes the prevailing delivery pressure.

Given the current set -up, traders must remain defensive in their approach. Fresh aggressive lungs must be avoided until the index breaks above 25,000-25.100 zone on strong volumes. Short -term players can use a very selective, share -specific approach with strict stop loss to protect capital. For the time being, protecting profits and managing exposure is careful the preferred strategy because the market continues to consolidate with a downward distortion.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA, is a Consulting Technical Analyst and Founder of EquitySearch.asia and Chartwizard.ae and is located in Vadodara. He can be reached at Milan.vaishnav@equiteresearch.asia)