1. Omarion Hampton (Chargers)
Matchup details:
In the first NFL game on the list, we have a touchdown value of over 2 for a rookie RB Omarion Hampton of the Chargers.
Hampton was really on a roll this season before an injury sidelined him. In the three games since his return, he has scored twice and racked up more than 200 yards, marking his career-best performance. Granted, it was against the Cowboys’ porous rushing defense, but Hampton has found room to compete against other tough rushing fronts like Denver and Kansas City, and his backfieldmate Kimani Vidal is listed as questionable due to a neck injury, meaning he could see one of his largest workloads yet.
Hampton is using a 10.8% probability of scoring a pair of touchdowns against the Texans, who present one of the strongest red zone defenses in the NFL, but that 10.8% implies odds of around +900, while Hampton can be found at +1100 on FanDuel for a significant 2.5% advantage. With 42.8% for an Anytime Touchdown, Hampton is the most likely player to score for either side in this game, according to our model.
Notably, Houston just allowed a 188-yard, 2-TD performance to fellow rookie RB Ashton Jeanty last week, and with the AFC West still in play for the Chargers, our model expects an aggressive offense as they look to force a Week 18 showdown with the Broncos.
2. Derrick Henry (Raven)
Matchup details:
- Teams: Ravens vs. Packers
- Date: Saturday December 27, 2025
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- Location: Lambeau Field
In the late game it’s none other than Ravens RB Derrick Henry who gets the best value from our model to score two touchdowns.
Henry is the subject of some Ravens controversy after not being on the field on critical late-game plays in Baltimore’s Week 16 loss, a call by HC John Harbaugh, a particularly notable call as it was Henry’s best game since Week 1 of the season, accounting for 128 yards and two scores.
It was his fourth multi-touchdown game of the season and he has a 17.2% chance to make five against the Packers on Saturday. Odds of +650 on FanDuel give us a 3.9% lead, as our model says he should only be +480.
Baltimore won’t start QB Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley, meaning the run game will likely be even more integral to their game plan than usual — in three Huntley appearances this season, Henry has TDs twice and 122 rushing yards in the other as the clear funnel for the offense in those situations.
At 52.7% to score an Anytime Touchdown, Henry is the highest overall in this game and is most likely among the Top 10 of Week 17.
Week 17 NFL Saturday Touchdown Picks
| Player | Always TD probability | 2+ TD probability | 2+ TD opportunities |
|---|---|---|---|
| Omarion Hampton (chargers) | 42.8% | 10.8% | +1100 |
| Dirk Hendrik (Raven) | 52.7% | 17.2% | +650 |
For bettors looking to leverage this data, we recommend betting each of the 2+ touchdown props as a regular bet. This is the best way to benefit from the stake value of each individual bet.
Another method, albeit with much lower odds, is to bet on Henry and Hampton each to score one touchdown in a two-leg touchdown parlay at +378.
For the highest risk, but also the biggest payout, bettors can pair both multi-touchdown props into a parlay that pays out at +8900 odds on FanDuel.
Dimers’ NFL betting odds for the 2025-2026 season
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