English expressions once bothered Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro so much that he urged the phasing out of words like skate park and fashion in his State of the Union address.
But while the White House now wonders whether the U.S. military should attack Venezuela, Maduro is embracing English, singing John Lennon’s Imagine, advocating peace and dancing to a remix of his latest English slogan: “No War, Yes Peace.”
While his reversal is seen as a sign of desperation by supporters of Venezuela’s political opposition, whose leaders have repeatedly told their bases in Washington that the threat of military action would fracture Maduro’s inner circle, months of pressure have yet to lead to defections or a government transition.
Loyalty versus punishment
Behind this knack for staying in power lies a system that harshly punishes disloyal employees and allows loyal ministers, judges, military leaders and other officials to enrich themselves.
“The Bolivarian Revolution has a remarkable capacity: the capacity for cohesion despite external pressure,” said Ronal Rodríguez, a researcher at the Venezuela Observatory at Colombia’s Universidad del Rosario, referring to the political movement, also known as Chavismo, that Maduro inherited from the late President Hugo Chávez. “When pressure comes from abroad, they manage to unite, defend and protect themselves.”
At the heart of the loyalty-or-punishment principle are corruption networks blessed by Chávez and Maduro that allow loyalists to get richer. The policy has derailed previous efforts to topple Maduro and helped him and his close associates avoid economic sanctions, win a U.S. presidential pardon and claim an election victory they lost resoundingly.
Rodríguez explained that imprisonment and torture could be part of the punishment, which is typically harsher for accused offenders with military ties. The strategy has been crucial for an authoritarian Maduro to maintain control of the military, which he allows to trade drugs, oil, wildlife and countless goods in exchange for coup-proof barracks.
“This has been a very effective tool, because Chavismo has always been able to eliminate those actors who at any given moment try to revolt, and because it has been able to expose corrupt practices of all kinds of actors,” Rodríguez said.
Military supports Maduro
Venezuela’s political opposition, led by Nobel laureate María Corina Machado, had relied on the military’s support to oust Maduro after credible evidence showed he lost the 2024 presidential election. But Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López and other military leaders backed Maduro, just as they did in 2019 during a barracks uprising by a group of soldiers who pledged allegiance to Juan Guaidó, the opposition leader who was recognized at the time by the first Trump administration as Venezuela’s rightful leader.
Since returning to office, US President Donald Trump has increased pressure on Maduro and his allies, including by doubling to $50 million the reward for information leading to his arrest on narcoterrorism charges. A 2020 indictment accused Maduro of leading the Cartel de los Soles, which the U.S. State Department on Monday designated a foreign terrorist organization.
Maduro denies the accusations.
On Saturday, Trump said the airspace “above and around” the South American country should be considered “completely closed.” Maduro’s government responded by accusing Trump of posing a “colonial threat,” rallying supporters behind what it called an attack on national sovereignty.
Suspected drug boats bombed
In early September, the US military began blowing up boats that the Trump administration accused of transporting drugs in the Caribbean Sea and the eastern Pacific Ocean, killing more than 80 people.
Many, including Maduro himself, see the US military actions as an attempt to end Chavismo’s grip on power. The opposition has only reinforced this perception by rekindling its pledge to remove Maduro from office.
Two weeks after the first boat attack, Chavismo’s loyalty was immediately tested when Maduro’s pilot rebuffed US efforts to join a plot to capture the Venezuelan leader and take him into custody to face charges.
“We Venezuelans are cut from a different cloth,” Bitner Villegas, a member of the elite presidential honor guard, wrote to a retired American officer who tried to recruit him. “The last thing we are are traitors.”
On Tuesday, supporters of the ruling party marched in Caracas to demonstrate what they described as the “anti-imperialist spirit” of Chavismo. The march ended with a ceremony in which Maduro raised a jeweled sword belonging to South American independence hero Simón Bolívar and led attendees, including Cabinet ministers, to swear in God’s name to defend peace and freedom.
Susan Shirk, a research professor at the University of California, San Diego, said authoritarian leaders have a “fetish for unity” and like to use public displays of loyalty to prevent division among leaders and social unrest. She explained that division can lead people to believe that the risk of protesting has decreased.
‘We must stay united’
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has said the designation of Cartel de los Soles gives Trump additional options to deal with Maduro. Hegseth did not provide details on these options, but administration officials have indicated that they struggle to see a situation in which Maduro is still in power as an acceptable endgame.
David Smilde, a professor at Tulane University who has studied Venezuela for more than 30 years, said only people who don’t understand Chavismo would think a show of force would cause a change in government.
“This is exactly the kind of thing that unites them,” Smilde said of the deployment of American forces. “They also talk about the $50 million reward, but what military officer in their right mind would trust the US government? And more broadly, if the entire premise of the operation is that the Venezuelan armed forces are a drug cartel, what motivation could they have to turn on Maduro and engage in regime change?”
Maduro’s entire presidency has been marked by a political, social and economic crisis that has pushed millions of people into poverty and forced more than 7.7 million to migrate. The crisis has also caused support for the ruling party to fall across the country.
With loyalties keeping his inner circle intact despite mounting U.S. pressure, Maduro has also sought to maintain his diminished base through long-standing practices, including organizing marches in the capital.
Zenaida Quintero, a school porter, has watched the country collapse under Maduro’s watch, with vivid memories of the severe food shortages Venezuelans faced in the late 2010s. Her support for Maduro has not waned, however, and her devotion boils down to one fact: he was handpicked by Chávez to lead the Bolivarian Revolution.
Quintero, 60, said Maduro, like Chávez, will not abandon his supporters.
“I trust him,” Quintero said of Maduro. “We must stay united. We must defend ourselves.”
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