One of the biggest UFC pay-per-views of the year is just around the corner as newly crowned heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall looks to defend his position for the first time when he takes on French contender Ciryl Gane. In the co-main event, strawweight titans Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern will battle for the vacant throne following the departure of former 115-lb queen Weili Zhang. However, there could be UFC 321 upsets on Saturday.
While many expect a fast night for the imposing Englishman, Gane presents a fresh new challenge for his compatriot. Just as towering and talented in the striking department, “Bon Gamin” will look to finally strike UFC gold after two previous failed attempts.
An underdog by the narrowest of margins, Jandiroba is eager to avenge a previous loss to Dern in 2020 and could score one of a string of UFC 321 upsets. While Dern’s stellar Jiu-Jitsu background and newfound strength have made her a true force in the division, the Brazilian’s five-fight winning streak begs to defy any odds thrown at her.
These are some of the biggest UFC 321 upsets to watch out for.
Possible UFC 321 upsets: Gane could have the edge
In the not-so-distant past, Gane was considered one of the smartest undefeated fighters in the sport. He won his first seven wins in the organization with victories over Junior Dos Santos, Derrick Lewis and Alexander Volkov. These impressive victories over renowned strikers like these men saw the Frenchman seen as possibly having the best stand-up game in the organization. His airtight kickboxing ability was on full display as he gave then-heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou a tough time in the early stages of their title match at UFC 270, defeating the Cameroonian in three of the five rounds.
In his upcoming opponent in Aspinall this weekend, Gane will certainly have his hands full dealing with the speed and power of the undisputed 265-pound king, who boasts a stellar punching accuracy of 67%, as well as a takedown accuracy of 100%. Fans who have followed ‘Bon Gamin’ over the past three years will remember that he struggled mightily in both of his previous championship bouts due to his underdeveloped wrestling skills.
For his third, and likely final, chance to fight for the heavyweight title, Gane has enlisted the services and lessons of acclaimed wrestlers in Olympic Champion Achmed Tazjudinov and Iranian wrestling phenomenon Pouya Rahmani.
Given the stakes of the fight, it can only be assumed that the European will enter the Octagon with a much more refined takedown resistance.
However, what gives Gane a fighting chance against Aspinall won’t be whether he can hold off the champion’s takedowns, but whether he can avoid his perceived heavy hands. Although the Englishman has four triumphs by submission, his main means of disposing of his opponents has always been to take them down and finish them with ground-and-pound.
To his credit, Gane boasts an excellent defense of 61 percent, using his magnificent footwork to avoid big shots while firing off deadly counter-attacks. It is this strategy that allowed him to land a devastating uppercut that took down the equally strong and durable Tai Tuivasa in their 2022 scrap.
If Gane can get Aspinall to open up after overcommitting to his offense, then the Frenchman can rip his opponent’s belt off after landing a huge offense of his own to lock in one of what could be a number of huge UFC 321 upsets.
Possible UFC 321 upsets: Mario Bautista’s previous competition prepared him for a major PPV spot
On the UFC 321 main card, MMA Lab product Mario Bautista squares off against one-time title challenger Umar Nurmagomedov in a likely number one contender match that could lead to one in a series of UFC 321 upsets.
On paper, the Dagestani appears to have all the tools needed to drag the American into deep waters thanks to his extensive background training with some of the best mixed martial artists in the world, including promotional legend Khabib Nurmagomedov. He has also knocked out almost every foe he has faced in the Octagon, save for Raoni Barcelos, who knocked out the Russian in the first round.
However, what gives Bautista a slight edge over Nurmagomedov isn’t in physical or combat skills, as the two are nearly equal in both attack and takedown accuracy and defense. It’s the power of adversity he’s had to overcome to get to this point in his career, and it could lead to one of the potential UFC 321 upsets this weekend.
Currently in the midst of an astonishing eight-fight winning streak, the 32-year-old has faced some powerful and venerable opponents as of late. Over the past two years, Bautista has traded blows with tough opposition in Da’Mon Blackshear and Ricky Simón, as well as previous title holders in José Aldo and Patchy Mix. This recent push against former world-class champions has helped establish Bautista as a versatile competitor with a proven track record of success against athletes with more experience on the sport’s biggest stage than him. Only time will tell if Bautista can be among the UFC 321 upsets scored on Saturday.
Possible UFC 321 breakdowns: Jandiroba on a mission to avenge himself against Dern
After ruling the division with three title defenses, Weili Zhang has made the decision to move up in weight and take on flyweight queen Valentina Shevchenko. Leaving a massive power vacuum, two of the best strawweights in the world battle for the first time to wrap corporate gold around their waists. It’s this co-main event that could deliver one of this week’s potential UFC 321 upsets.
Although the championship picture is new for both of them, Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern have a history with each other, with Dern previously gaining the upper hand over the Brazilian.
In the past five years, only a few fighters can say they have defeated Jandiroba, Amanda Ribas and the aforementioned Dern. While facing UFC 256, it was Dern who emerged victorious after a hotly contested unanimous decision win. Since then, Jandiroba has won five straight matches, moving past the likes of Marina Rodriguez, Amanda Lemos and Yan Xiaonan. Making full use of her impeccable Jiu-Jitsu, “Carcará” has had little trouble bringing her opponents to the canvas and wearing them down.
She will undoubtedly be tested in the wrestling department by her divisional foe Dern, as the Arizona native holds a third-degree black belt in the same discipline in which Jandiroba excels. But given her growth as a fighter over the past five years and her wins over other recognized wrestlers in the weight class, she is now much better prepared to take on the powerful Dern in one of the potential UFC bouts. 321 disruptions.
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