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WTA Limoges Challenger semi-final
nut 1.32 v Kalinina
Starts at 3:30 PM
Reliability score 7/10
Bucsa served first and was broken to 15. Her price went to 1.60. If my favorite player breaks early and doesn’t reach my target price, I often back him with a lower bet. 1.60 was a bad price to get in so I waited.
Kalinina could easily hold the 15. Bucsa’s rate went to 1.76. I’m trying not to read too much into the first two games, but I wasn’t in a rush to get involved yet. Bucsa was broken to 30 and trailed 0-3. I backed Bucsa at 2.18.
In the next game, Kalinina went behind 0-40. I removed a small liability at 1.78. Kalinina saved two of the break points, but was broken on the third. The price was still 1.78. I gave Bucsa the chance to hold on. She had only scored 3 points in her first 2 service games, so it was far from certain. She held on to 15. Her price went to 1.59. I wanted to hold out for the $1.50 price to eliminate any remaining liability.
Kalinina fell behind 0-15 and Bucsa’s price reached 1.51 and took away my liability, leaving the green on Bucsa. Kalinina held on at 30 and led 4-2. In the next game Bucsa held at 0. The next two games were held at 15. Kalinina served for the set at 5-4 and held at 30.
Bucsa’s price reached 2.08 at the end of the set. In the second set she served first. I already had the free bet on her, so I didn’t do anything. She was broken to 0! I put Kalinina at 1.47. She now led with a set and a break, which is usually a good time to lay the lead. Kalinina fell behind 0-30 in the next game. She recovered to 30-30, but was broken to 30. To remove the liability again, I put Bucsa at 2.24.
In the next game Bucsa was broken again to 0! There was no stream for the match, but maybe she was struggling physically. I didn’t want to go in anymore. I had the choice to stick with the free bet or the hedging. I hedged at 1.39 on Kalinina’s ladder.
Kalinina did not have to deal with another break point for the rest of the set. When Bucsa served at 2-4, she was 0-40 behind. She saved 4 bp in that game, but held on. I wondered if that would be a turning point, but Kalinina held 30 in the next game and then broke Bucsa again to take the set and the match.
The Canalina is 6-4, 6-3.
My prediction of the result was completely wrong, but there were enough swings to come away with a profit.
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