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ATP Brisbane
Kovacevic vs Mpetshi Perricard 1.64
The start is at 2:30 am
Reliability score 7/10
1st meeting. The hard winning percentages after twelve months are slightly better for Kovacevic.
Kovacevic had a 2 set win over Kyrgios in the first round. Norrie wins 3 tight sets as underdog in the 2nd round.
He reached the Final in Los Cabos 2025. He won 2 of the last 10 on hard.
Perricard reached the semi-finals last year. 3rd set tiebreak win over Paul in the 1st round. Tiebreak win in the 3rd set in the 2nd round as a slight favorite.
4th round in Shanghai 2025, semi-finals in Winston-Salem 2025.
ATP stats over 12 months give Perricard the advantage in storage. Stats for their last 10 on hard are stronger for Perricard.
Return Perricard around 2:10 to 2:30 and remove liability at 1:70. Good chance of 3 sets.
Match prediction: Mpetshi Perricard in 3 sets.
Update: Perricard served first. The first 2 games were serves. In the third game Perricard fell behind 15-40. I laid Kovacevic. Perricard recovered and held firm after saving three break points. I removed half of my liability.
The next 5 matches were held. Only one of them saw the returner get to 30. The score was now 4-4. It was difficult to pick a set winner. I decided to hedge so I could at least take a little profit in set 2.
The set ended in a tiebreak, which Kovacevic won.
Kovacevic served first in the second set. I laid it. It was broken to 15. I removed the liability on Kovacevic and left the green on Perricard.
The next 2 matches were held. Perricard served at 2-1. He conceded a break point, but recovered and held on. The next six games were easy and Perricard took the set. I covered it evenly. Since there had only been one service break in the match, I wasn’t really looking forward to participating in the third set.
Only in 1 of the games in the deciding set did the receiver receive more than 1 point. That match was the fourth match and meant a break to 15 for Kovacevic.
Kovacevic won 7-6, 4-6, 6-3.
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