The Toronto Blue Jays can’t afford to wait: the case is to spend big this winter

The Toronto Blue Jays can’t afford to wait: the case is to spend big this winter

After losing in Game 7 to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series and the initial fallout of the season being over without a ring, the Blue Jays appear ready to get back and compete again.

That validation comes in different forms, such as recent comments from Tyler Heineman, the return of Shane Bieber, or the reports from last week’s GM Meetings in Las Vegas about the Jays looking to spend money.

It’s no secret that the organization is determined to return to the postseason. Bringing a World Series Championship back to Toronto would send the country into a frenzy – evidenced by record-breaking viewership this postseason on Sportsnet – but also fill the coffers of Rogers Communications, which is the main reason they are in this business in the first place. Not only does winning bring fans into the building and provide a good storyline, but all the benefits that come with a postseason run – ticket sales, merchandise, hot dogs – all contribute to the bottom line.

All things considered, the Toronto Blue Jays earned a pretty penny this yearand it appears the front office has the green light to spend this winter if reports this offseason are any indication. This isn’t a relatively new development for ownership and fans, as Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s 14-year, $500 million extension and the recent pursuit of Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto in free agency should portend ownership’s willingness to greenlight spending exorbitant amounts of money for the right player. The lack of success in signing these megastars in free agency is a bit more frustrating for the fanbase, but winning will help solve these issues (on top of the recent additions and changes at the Rogers Centre), which should give Toronto some advantages at the bargaining table this season after their second-place finish.

If the Jays are going to spend it, the time is certainly right to give the front office a pass. When you look at the comparative free agents available this year compared to next year, it’s easy to see why the benefits of working the phone lines outweigh next year.

This winter, the free agent class is led by OF Kyle Tucker, 3B Alex Bregman, DH Kyle Schwarber, SS Bo Bichette, 1B Pete Alonso, RHP Dylan Cease, RHP Michael King, LHP Ranger Suarez and a host of international free agents such as 1B/3B Munetaka Murakami and RHP Tatsuya Imai.

Leading the way is LHP Tarik Skubal, who will be the most coveted free agent of the group, followed by LHP Chris Sale, RHP Kevin Gausman, RHP Freddy Peralta, RHP Shane Bieber, OF Adolis Garcia, 2B Jazz Chisholm Jr., 2B Nico Hoerner, 3B Max Muncy and Blue Jays outfielders Daulton Varsho and George Springer. A few players have club options, like Braves stalwarts Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies, as well as White Sox outfielder Luis Robert Jr., but those three probably aren’t going anywhere.

While a fair argument could be made that the pitching next winter will outpace the group available this time, the overall depth isn’t nearly as deep when comparing the two classes overall. The Blue Jays are currently without one of their core players in Bichette, who should be the priority for Toronto at this point, but they also have some work to do with an open rotation spot, some bullpen spots to fill, and adding some extra strength to the lineup (with the rumor mill pegging the Jays to Tucker).

Potentially losing Gausman, Bieber, Berrios (player option), Varsho and Springer next winter will be a tough pill to swallow, and can be addressed by early expansion of specific players, acquiring outside talent to fill the holes, or relying on internal sources to step in and take over the spot, such as Anthony Santander, Addison Barger, Trey Yesavage or one of the other internal pitching prospects. There are a lot of risks associated with the free agent class next winter, especially from a position player perspective, but that’s why the focus should be on spending now, compared to next year (not to mention the potential lockout).

Financially, the Jays CBT is projected at ~$235 million per Contracts for cots, and the second tier of CBT is $264 million this season, which is where we would see whether or not Jays ownership is willing to spend more money as the second payer of the tax rate after crossing the threshold last year with the fifth highest CBT payroll in the league. The third and fourth levels in 2026 will be $284 and $305 million, respectively.

If the Jays sign a bona fide starter to a multi-year deal now, the potential loss of Gausman, Berrios and/or Bieber next winter won’t be nearly as bad, and they can also look to fill the remaining rotation spot around that time (similar to where Toronto is now with the departures of Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer). Adding someone like Tucker or Bellinger gives the Jays the same insurance if Varsho and/or Springer also leave, albeit in potentially different areas when you consider the talents Varsho brings compared to the rest (defensive vs. offensive). There is more talent available now to fill those holes compared to next winter, and while some roster adjustments would need to be made for 2026 (Ernie Clement and Addison Barger would have to split third base, for example), the club’s overall future would be in better hands.

As I said before, this also doesn’t include the potential of a lockout after the 2026 season, which could throw free agency as a whole into disarray if the owners and players cannot quickly ratify a new CBA, let alone the differences in strength between the free agent classes.

The front office should have the money to spend now, there are numerous free agents available who can help the team win now, and Toronto has some power at the table after making it to the World Series and still retaining some of the team’s key members, one that hopefully brings back a core member of that group.

The Jays should have some money to play with, and whether they are willing to cross the CBT threshold has yet to be determined, but the time to strike is now with this current free agent class and the position the organization has put itself in instead of waiting for the 2026-2027 offseason.


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