After being short Tucker and Bichette, it’s likely the team could shift their focus back to adding more pitching. Left-handed Framber Valdez remains available, and Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports that the Blue Jays met with him at the GM meetings in November. Nicholson-Smith clarified that the meeting took place before the signing of Cease, but that there was mutual interest between the two parties at the time.
Valdez has so far been publicly linked to the Orioles, Giants, Mets and Red Sox. The Orioles’ interest was reported even after they signed Pete Alonso for $155 million over five years. The Giants are more interested in a short-term deal, while the Mets reportedly prefer pitching via trade. The Red Sox also met with Valdez in November, but they may not be a good fit after signing Ranger Suarez and act for Son Gray And Johan Oviedo.
As for the Blue Jays, their current interest in Valdez is unclear, as is their ability to get him on the payroll. Grid source has their 2026 payroll at $282 million and their CBT payroll at $310.5 million, which puts them above the maximum luxury tax limit of $304 million. While their offer for Tucker would have yielded a $35 million AAV plus a $31.5 million luxury tax bill, he might have been a special case as the clear top pick on the market.
Meanwhile, Valdez is older than all three of Tucker, Bichette and Cease. He was predicted to land a five-year deal worth $150 million on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list. As a second-year luxury taxpayer, the Jays would owe $27 million in tax penalties on that $30 million AAV, which would give Valdez a total cost of $57 million in 2026 if they were to sign him. He also turned down a qualifying offer from the Astros, meaning he would cost the Jays their second- and fifth-highest draft picks in 2026. With an expected rotation of Cease, Trey Yesavage, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieberand Ponce, it’s possible Valdez is both too expensive and more of a need than a want for Toronto.
Of course, that doesn’t detract from Valdez’s track record. From 2022-25, he was worth 16.5 fWAR, which was fifth-best among qualified starters between Gausman and Cease. Much of that success is due to Valdez’s home run suppression and exceptional groundball percentages. In those four seasons, his 0.68 HR/9 ranks fifth among qualified starters. His groundball rate of 60.0% is the highest among starters with at least 500 innings. For Valdez, that number has never dropped below 54.2% in a full season.
He has also built a reputation for sustainability. Valdez’s 767 2/3 innings since the start of 2022 rank second in the majors, behind only Giants ace Logan Webb. Last year was more of the same. In 31 starts with the Astros, Valdez pitched 192 innings with a 3.66 ERA, 58.6% groundball percentage and an above-average K-BB percentage of 14.8%.
He did show some signs of wear and tear as the season progressed, posting a 5.20 ERA in 71 second-half innings. The last two months were especially difficult. In August, Valdez struck out just 12.8% of batters he faced. In September and October, he became unusually prone to homers, allowing six long balls in 27 2/3 innings (1.95 HR/9). On the plus side, his sinker remained a dominant throw, with a run value of 15 according to Statcast and an above-average vertical break. While a long-term deal would put Valdez in his mid-30s, he should at least maintain strong bottom thanks to his durability and extreme groundball tendencies.
The market was solid for pitchers looking for long-term deals. Cease was coming off an uneven run with the Padres and still got seven years from the Jays. Suarez just got five years and $130 million from Boston, which matches our contract projection in length and exceeds it in value by $15 million. Tatsuya Imai may be the only starter expected to get a long-term deal who has settled for a shorter pact (three years, $54 million with the Astros). Aside from his age, Valdez has a long track record and should do better than Imai, at least in terms of AAV.
Photo courtesy of Troy Taormina, Imagn Images
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