The seasonality in March shows a joy ride for bulls as Nifty ended positive eight times in the last decade. This is why

The seasonality in March continues to favor bulls, with Nifty ending the month on a positive note eight times in the last decade. Much of this supershow can be attributed to Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), who have been net buyers 70% of the time. They were ably supported by domestic institutional investors (DIIs), who acted as buyers seven times in the past decade.

A snapshot of 10 years

March has historically tilted in favor of bulls. Excluding the pandemic-induced crash of 2020 (-23.2%) and the decline in 2018 (-3.6%), the index ended the month largely in the green. Gains were particularly strong in 2016 (10.7%), 2019 (7.7%) and 2025 (6.3%), while 2022 also saw a solid 4% increase. Even in relatively quiet years such as 2021 (1.1%), 2024 (1.6%) and 2023 (0.3%), the index managed to close higher.

Be trendy

FII trends in March over the past decade have been largely positive, with net inflows recorded in seven cases. However, in two of the three outflow years, foreign investors resorted to heavy selling of Indian equities, highlighting an occasional sharp sense of risk.

FIIs were aggressive buyers between 2016 and 2019, investing Rs 21,143 crore in 2016, Rs 30,906 crore in 2017, Rs 11,654 crore in 2018 and Rs 33,981 crore in 2019.

Sentiment turned sharply in 2020 as they withdrew Rs 61,973 crore amid the pandemic-induced market turmoil. Another major selloff took place in 2022, with an outflow of Rs 41,123 crore.

FIIs returned as net buyers in 2021 (Rs 10,482 crore), 2023 (Rs 7,936 crore) and 2024 (Rs 35,098 crore) with net outflows of Rs 3,973 crore recorded in 2025.

DII trend

DIIs have increasingly emerged as market stabilizers for years. After being net sellers in 2016, 2017 and 2019, DIIs turned into consistent buyers during periods of foreign sales. They infused Rs 55,595 crore in March 2020, cushioning the markets during the Covid-led FII exodus, and repeated this role in 2022 with net purchases of Rs 39,677 crore.

Domestic flows remained robust in subsequent years, with investments reaching Rs 30,549 crore in 2023, Rs 56,356 crore in 2024 and Rs 37,079 crore in 2025.

Useful prospect

Based on the Nifty rollover data for the February series, Axis Direct said in a note that it expects the March series to end between 24,500 and 26,000. “With heavy Call resistance at 26,000–26,500, PUT support at 24,500–25,000, and the zone 25,500–26,000 acts as the decisive pivot due to high double-sided activity,” the report said.

(Data input from Ritesh Presswala)

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