| Fierceness open The Alyseba |
Welcome friends at the Turk blog, where I generally build turf races disabilities and exact bets. Although I love peat races, especially older horses over a grass route, I do not ignore the dirt, especially this current harvest of older Vuillopers who are deep and very talented. I generally still avoid 2-3 yos on dirt because I just think I’m not so good at that, but a field like today Whitney At Saratoga, who can’t be enthusiastic?
I want to thank the good people The Thorofan As always to share my thoughts with you today. You can find my work with my new one Facebook page as well as a new one Twitter/X handleOr just come to my blog. Thank you.
Let’s just dive into it. Today I only emphasized two videos, Mindframs Stephen Foster Handicap Win and Fierceness bee The Alyseba. I could have continued, but something like the With mileRun in Slop is just not that relevant.
June 28, 2025; Stephen Foster Handicap G1 on CD: 1 1/8 miles on fast dirt
May 2, 2025; The Alyseba Stakes G2 on CD: 1 1/16 Mile on Fast Dirt (Track record for Fierceness))
In general, I do not get that on statistics such as post -time favorites who win, but as this shows below, are two twist races at Saratoga children to chalk the name of “Graveyards of Forforites”, you would like to believe. There is also difficult opportunities with deep shutterers.
I define deep closers while I dismiss the pace of the US pace from early. Everything larger than 50 points and I consider that a deep closer. For example today, Sierra Leone has early 62, a late 132, a +70 differential. You can see it in the running lines. Due to the placement of the gate just before the first turn, Sierra Leone Will fall back tactically and will need a pace to meet. My identified deep closers also include Disarm And Post -time.
Outdoor posts, like most tracks, will have lower opportunities. Quality horses defy those opportunities. For no reason, I give you 2008’s Kentucky Derby And Big Brown (Rest in peace Eight Belles).
Some facts to nibble with regard to saratoga (with sources linked below):
- At all dual dirt matches At Saratoga, the winning of the completion – of the distance (post -time favorites) is round 42.8%. (1)
- In those races, most winners are usually of both Early Speed Horses (PaceTetters) or Trackers/Stalkerswhile Deep ships have less success in particular, especially on the main track – the relieving types rarely prevail unless the pace collapses. (2)
- Winners of the Wire -TO -Bire/Front -Runner probably take into account 30-40% From victories at this distance, depending on the pace.
- Poets probably win in the Low teenage percentageEspecially on main routes.
- Stalkers/Persers Dominate many of the remaining races. (2) (3)
- The Start Gate for 9 -Furlong dirty races at Saratoga is placed just before the first turnwhich gives Inner reports (1–4) A useful advantage if the horse has an early speed, because they can secure a favorable position for turning. (4)
- Historically the within four messages have one slight lead in win percentage In Saratoga two -tone dirt competitions (ie at the 9 Furlong distance). (5)
- Races of posts 8 and wider are statistically disadvantaged: in one analyzed monster, horses from post positions 8 and out combined 1 -for -31 In victories, around ~ 3% profit percentage wins from those broad posts. (5)
- That leaves Middle posts (5–7) Winning a considerable part of the races, sometimes exceeding better than expectations or at least compensate for prejudices of favoritism. (5)
- If signed Post 1–3 In a 9 -Furlong dirt route at Saratoga: Your horse has traditionally enjoyed one ~ 50-55% Chance To be the winner.
- Drawing Post 4–6 still offers a solid one ~ 10-12% profit percentagereflection of the performance of the middle post.
- Messages 7 produces drastically lower success rates – typical <5% By post – especially because of the early dynamics and shorter run to the first corner. (6)
Honest opportunities: The Whitney Grade 1 at Saratoga.
A race like today Whitney For me it is about determining who should win, how the audience views them (through the lack of morning line, my honest opportunity graph and the plate of the tote), and what kind of contrary image I can take in my exact bet construction. I say in today’s race, but this is a process that I follow for every race, with the only difference on a large handle day like today, I can get a little deeper because the reward will be bigger with the larger handle.
Although I want contradictory, and still lose the opportunities somewhere between 60-67% of the favorites, it is difficult not to like it either Fierceness by Mind frame here. Early speed, late speed, tactical speed, Pletcher brings two animals to the gate.
From a contrary point of view, White Abarrio and Highland Falls Grade 1 winners are on this song and can easily be overlooked.
White Abarrio At 6 years this race now won like a 4 year. He has been training on Saratoga Steady since the end of June after walking in the slop of the With mile. A winner of $ 1.7 mm 2025 cannot simply be inflamed. Highland Fallsreal value at 8-1 or so, took the classic distance Golden cup In Saratoga last September. Prat jumped away, but Cox brings the light races for 5 years son of Curlin In off a tough favorite win of 1 mile.
I’m going to take and place a flyer of $ 2 Highland Falls/White Abarrio Over Sierra Leone” Fierceness And Mind frameA $ 2 Exacta for $ 12.
As always, have fun with it and don’t be afraid to lose. As your handicaps improve, you relate to your own instincts on the bias of the media articles or track commentators, or bald, third person talking disabilities such as the Turk. Search for value above gambling favorites.
Turk out!
Sources
#nomination #Whitney #Saratoga