The ash moves to the city of churches as England try to keep the series alive after a 2-0 defeat. Australia have their foot on England’s throat, can they win the series? Or will England finally start in Adelaide?
Jack Tobin below you’ll find his full preview and betting tips for the 3rd Test of the Ashes, with odds courtesy of Neds!
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Australia vs England 3rd Test Preview and Betting Odds
Adelaide Oval, Wednesday 17 December, 10.30am AEDT
Australia
Team: Pat Cummins, Steve Smith, Scott Boland, Alex Carey, Brendan Doggett, Cameron Green, Travis Head, Josh Inglis, Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne, Nathan Lyon, Michael Neser, Mitchell Starc, Jake Weatherald, Beau Webster
It’s all positive on the selection front for Australia, with captain Pat Cummins making his first appearance in the squad this summer. With Nathan Lyon also set to be picked, Australia are likely to welcome 871 Test wickets of experience for the third Test – a scary sight for England. The likely scenario is that Neser and Doggett are replaced by Cummins and Lyon. While Usman Khawaja will be fit, it is almost impossible to see him coming given how well Australia batted in the second innings at Perth, and in Brisbane without him.
It was a typically disciplined performance from Australia that fans have become accustomed to in the Andrew McDonald era, as the Aussies cruised to an eight-wicket win in the second Test. Mitchell Starc again did the damage with the ball, taking 6/75 in the first innings to restrict England to 334. In the second innings it was Michael Neser who did the damage, taking 5/42, including the scalps of Zak Crawley, Ben Stokes, Ollie Pope and Will Jacks, to ensure Australia would only chase a small total.
After question marks in the first Test Australia’s batting group responded resoundingly to score 511 – Australia’s first 500+ total at home since 2022. For the third time in history, all eleven Australian batsmen scored in double figures, in a remarkable team performance. Mitchell Starc played a crucial role in scoring with 77, but his 141 balls faced allowed Australia to bowl under lights on day three, which proved telling. Jake Weatherald (72), Marnus Labuschagne (65), Alex Carey (63) and Steve Smith (61) all made crucial contributions.
England
Team: Ben Stokes, Harry Brook, Jofra Archer, Gus Atkinson, Shoaib Bashir, Jacob Bethell, Brydon Carse, Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett, Will Jacks, Ollie Pope, Matthew Potts, Joe Root, Jamie Smith, Josh Tongue, Matthew Fisher
England now find themselves in a huge hole, trailing 2-0 and needing to win all three remaining matches to regain the Ashes for the first time in a decade. Brendon McCullum has indicated he will not make any changes to the top seven despite their shortcomings, with England’s bowling attack likely to be altered. Brydon Carse and Gus Atkinson appear to be on the hot seat. Carse has taken 3/236 in the first two Tests at an average of 78, while Carse is England’s leading wicket-taker with 9 wickets. He has leaked 5.39 runs per over and has made scoring very easy for the Australians. Josh Tongue and Matthew Potts seem the likely replacements.
The same problems persist for England, with their mindless batting once again costing them dearly. England looked destined to post a big first innings score when they were 2/122 with Zak Crawley and Joe Root looking ominously, but Crawley, Harry Brook and Ben Stokes were dismissed in a very avoidable manner, crippling England’s innings. England fell to 9/264 before a 70-run partnership took England to 334, but that was clearly not enough.
After putting in a brilliant performance with the ball in the first innings in Perth, England have been terrible with the ball ever since. They conceded 2/205 in just 28.2 overs in the second innings in Perth, they conceded 511 in the first innings in Brisbane where Australia went over 5 overs for most of the innings, and they conceded 69 runs in 10 overs as Australia comfortably chased down the target in the second innings. Jofra Archer’s speeds have dropped significantly and he is now under even more pressure with Mark Wood out of the series. England must find a way to control Australia’s run rate if they want to get back into the series.
Match prediction
There are many assumptions that this pitch will be flatter and easier for England to serve on, which the numbers completely disagree with. Wickets have fallen faster in red-ball games in Adelaide than in pink-ball matches, while batting averages are also lower in day Test matches. Adelaide Oval has been the second most difficult pitch to hit in Test cricket in day matches over the past decade when it comes to batting averages.
With Cummins and Lyon returning to the Australian side, there is less reliance on Mitchell Starc to take the wicket, while Scott Boland will also benefit from Cummins’ return despite a positive start to the Ashes. The longer this test goes on, the more important Nathan Lyon becomes. Australia have a great variety in their bowling attacks, which will put them in great shape for whatever comes their way in Adelaide.
With the bat, Australia are clearly ahead of England in terms of their ability to adapt to conditions and game situations, and given how poor England have been for the majority of the two Tests with the ball, it further widens the gap between the two sides. Australia have won 16 of their last 20 Tests, while England have lost three consecutive Tests and four of their last six.
Australia’s last six Tests at the Adelaide Oval have seen wins of 10 wickets, 10 wickets, 419 runs, 275 runs, 8 wickets and an innings and 48 runs. There have been seven Ashes Tests at the Adelaide Oval since 1998, with Australia winning six of those seven Tests. The Ashes are there for the taking and Australia will be desperate to capitalize on the advantage they have, unlike in 2023.
Australia wins
$1.48 (1.5 units)
Australia vs England Prop Bet
Travis Head loves playing against England and he loves playing on his home ground, the Adelaide Oval. This week both strengths come together as Head hits at his most productive. The South Australian has scored 634 runs at an average of 79.25 at the Adelaide Oval, his best average at any venue in the world where he has played more than one Test. He has three centuries in his last three Tests in Adelaide, with scores of 175, 38*, 119 and 140 in his last three Tests at his home venue.
Travis Head: Top scorer of runs in Australia’s first innings
$5.00
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