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Game overview
A tradition and rivalry that predates the NFL merger: Thanksgiving football in Detroit between the Lions and Packers. As has been the case for decades, the Lions will kick off the festivities with their 86th Thanksgiving game. For the Packers, this will be their third straight appearance and their 39th all-time appearance.
The NFC North rivals last faced off during the 2023 holidays, a game the Packers won outright as 8.5-point underdogs. In his first season at the helm, quarterback Jordan Love led off with a 53-yard bomb to Christian Watson for the Packers’ opening score and an early lead they never relinquished.
That’s largely the story of the Lions on Thanksgiving. Under Dan Campbell, Detroit is now looking to turn the tide on its 1-3 Thanksgiving record. The team has a 50% coverage percentage and an 0-2 mark against the spread as favorites in that period. However, that trend is outside the norm for Campbell’s Lions, who are an NFL-best 27-15 against the home spread since 2021.
On the other hand, Matt LaFleur’s Packers have defeated each of their past two games on Turkey Day, but face a tough road challenge this time around given their difficulties covering the spread this season. They have just a 1-4 against-the-spread record on the road this season, as well as an 0-1 mark as underdogs.
In a tight race for the NFC North, this game will bring some animosity. The Packers played the Lions in their first game of the season in Week 1, but can they repeat that effort on the road?
QB Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: Over 19.5 completions (-110)
When the Lions and Packers met in Week 1, Love dropped back just 23 times and completed 16 of his passes. While Green Bay led by multiple scores for most of the game, the team’s passing offense was played on just 50% of snaps — the second-lowest of the season for the Packers, and a 7.5 percentage point drop in their pass-play rate over the 10 upcoming games.
Detroit will host this time, and it’s expected to be a much more exciting game, leaving the Packers open to throwing more. Love has eclipsed this completion line in three of his past five games and now faces a Lions defense with plenty of man coverage to attack. He thrived in men’s coverage this season, earning the second-highest PFF grade for men’s looks in the NFL.
Game overview
This will be the 58th time the Dallas Cowboys have performed on Thanksgiving, having hosted for most of the past 50 years. Their history on Turkey Day is among the best, with a winning percentage of .605. And that’s not all that a critically acclaimed franchise that dominated generations ago has to offer. Dallas has also found recent success, claiming victory in each of the team’s past three Thanksgiving appearances, along with a 2-1 record against the spread.
The Chiefs, on the other hand, haven’t seen the field on Thanksgiving in nearly two decades, last appearing in 2006. They won that game at home 19-10 over the Denver Broncos – and were considered one-point favorites – after a huge 157-yard performance from Larry Johnson.
However, the 2025 campaign brings new challenges for both franchises. For the Chiefs, glimpses of the explosive offense that made them a dynasty have returned. Yet that success has seemingly struggled to translate into betting markets on the road, as they have just a 1-4 against-the-spread record outside the confines of Arrowhead Stadium.
That could spell trouble for Dallas’ defense, which has struggled most of the year. Still, the unit may be looking up after an influx of talent around the trade deadline, especially with the acquisition of Quinnen Williams and seeing key defensemen return from injury. Over the past two games, the Cowboys have risen into the top 12 of the EPA per game allowed, a dramatic improvement from the team’s 31st ranked unit before a week 10 bye.
QB Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs: Over 263.5 passing yards (-115)
Mahomes has traded up over the past two months, putting up more than 270 passing yards in six of his past eight games. That production has pushed the Chiefs’ offense to new heights, with their 0.118 EPA per game ranking second in the NFL. It is also their highest mark through Week 12 since the 2022 season.
This week, the Chiefs’ passing game is a plus against a Cowboys defense that has struggled to keep passers from filling up the stat sheet and ranks 31st in passing yardage allowed. Mahomes can benefit from a Dallas secondary that provides zone coverage at a top-five rate in the NFL. He has been incredibly efficient against the zone, generating the highest EPA per play against those looks.
Game overview
It’s been more than a decade since the Bengals or Ravens graced the field on Thanksgiving.
The Bengals’ struggles in 2025 were far-reaching. They have won just once since mid-September, when they lost quarterback Joe Burrow to an injury that sidelined him for nine games. As a result, Cincinnati has played just four games this season.
Although the Bengals are not mathematically eliminated from the postseason, their margin of making a playoff push (0.7%) is slim. A loss would effectively take them out of contention. Burrow is back, though, so expect this team to fight tooth and nail to eliminate their division rivals in an attempt to salvage that slim chance. That scenario would bode well for their chances of defending as touchdown underdogs.
What doesn’t bode well for Cincinnati’s chances is the “why” regarding this game’s touchdown spread. The Ravens have been on a tear — they’ve won five straight games — and are now tied for first place in the AFC North. With a newfound defensive identity and Lamar Jackson back in charge, the Ravens have averaged a 12.8-point margin of victory over the span. They just want to take control of the division, so don’t expect the Ravens to lie at home.
RB Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals: Less than 14.5 rush attempts (-118)
Since the start of the 2024 season, no team has moved the ball at a slower rate than the Bengals (31.6%), largely due to their frequent deficits. As a result, Brown has fallen below that mark in seven of his 11 games this season.
With Joe Burrow set to return and the Bengals taking on a high-powered Ravens offense, the game status may not favor a hasty script for Cincinnati. Moving Kyle Hamilton closer to the line of scrimmage in Week 6 transformed a Ravens defense that had struggled mightily through the first five games. Since that switch, Baltimore has ranked first in EPA per rush allowed. The Bengals’ running game could be stifled early, making this line difficult for Brown to reach.
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