The Christmas week of the 2025 NFL season brings with it a slew of gifts spread over four different days. The Christmas festivities continue Saturday with two games, including an AFC showdown between the Houston Texans and the Los Angeles Chargers. Houston (9-5) is looking to secure a playoff spot, while Los Angeles (11-4) is still in the fight for the AFC West crown.
Let’s take a look at my Texans vs. Chargers predictions.
Houston Texans vs. Los Angeles Chargers Odds
Moneyline: Texans +108 / Chargers -126
Spread: Texans +1.5 (-105) / Chargers -1.5 (-115)
Total: More than 39.5 (-110) / Less than 39.5 (-110)
Houston Texans vs. Los Angeles Chargers Best Bet #1: Texans ML (+108)
The Texans have won seven straight games despite tough competition. Among the seven opponents they have defeated recently are Jacksonville, Buffalo, Indianapolis and Kansas City – when the Chiefs were still in the playoffs and before Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL. Houston’s defense is the best in the entire league. It is No. 1 overall (272.3 yards allowed per game), No. 1 in scoring (16.6 points allowed per game), No. 4 against the pass, No. 2 in yards per pass attempt allowed, No. 4 against the run, No. 3 in turnovers forced and tied for No. 6 in sacks.
Los Angeles is on a four-game winning streak of its own, but struggled against Philly (22-19 in overtime) and KC (16-13 after Mahomes went down). Except when it fell victim to the Cowboys and Raiders’ woeful defenses, LA’s offense has struggled, dating back to a 35-6 loss to the Jaguars in Week 11. There’s no reason to worry too much about Houston’s way-too-close 23-21 win over Las Vegas last weekend. That was a classic preview spot against a terrible team with a much bigger game against the Chargers just six days later. This is a rematch of a 2024 wild card playoff game from last season, when the Texans destroyed the Bolts 32-12.
Houston Texans vs. Los Angeles Chargers Best Bet on Player: Woody Marks Over 48.5 rushing yards (-110)
Houston’s winning formula during this hot streak isn’t hard to decipher. The recipe is to build leads with his dominant defense and then work the clock with a ball-control attack.
Marks is a big part of that plan. He has rushed for at least 64 yards in three of the last four games and at least 62 yards in five of the last eight games. The USC product had 26 carries in a Week 15 win over the Chiefs and has rushed 16 or more times in four of the past five outings. Marks now faces a Los Angeles defense that is allowing a significant 4.4 yards per carry. By comparison, the Chargers are No. 6 in the league in pass defense and also No. 6 in yards per pass attempt allowed.
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