The $600,000, Class 3 Bryan Station insert Saturday is the penultimate graded stakes race of the 2025 Keeneland fall meet, and the one-mile turf race for 3-year-olds has attracted a full field of 12, along with three competitors who also qualify on Saturday. With a tepid 9-2 favorite in the morning line, this year’s edition promises plenty of competitive intrigue and several contenders with betting value.
It is striking that seven of the dozens of participants in the largest part of the field are the fathers of Not This Time. Mesero drew the track marker for trainer Dale Romans and previously achieved a victory at this distance and on this course. Golden Afternoon is fresh off a second-place finish in the Grade 1 Ainsworth Franklin-Simpson Stakes at Kentucky Downs and looks to repeat the 108 Equibase Speed Figure he earned last time out for trainer Nicholas Vaccarezza. Antisocial also comes from the Franklin-Simpson, where he earned a career-best 105 Equibase Figure when finishing fourth by just two lengths. Troubleshooting won the Franklin-Simpson over three Bryan Station runners to earn the highest final Equibase grade in this field, a 109. Final Gambit, the fourth-place finisher in this year’s Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, will make his fourth straight start on turf for trainer Brad Cox, and he will have Luan Machado back in the saddle for the first time since the Derby. Dream on finished fifth just 2 ¼ lengths behind Henri Matisse in last year’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and will look to find the winner’s circle after out-of-the-money finishes in his last two starts.
Game warrior has both career victories at this mile distance on grass for trainer Peter Miller. He made his first start outside California in his lead-up race and earlier in October finished sixth by just 3 ½ lengths in the Grade 2 Jockey Club Derby Invitational Stakes at Belmont at the Big A. Tenacious leader was sidelined for a year after his bid in the 2024 Grade 1 Breeders’ Future, winning a 1 1/16-mile compensation race on grass during Keeneland’s opening day card of this meet. John Velazquez, who has won this Keeneland meet five times, will be back on board for trainer Todd Pletcher. Grade 2 Secretariat Stakes winner Giocoso is the 9-2 morning favorite of trainer Keith Desormeaux. He narrowly missed victory in his most recent start, running a race second behind Bryan Station entry Plensa in the Gun Runner Stakes at Kentucky Downs. Simulate is looking for its first victory at the graded stakes level after a second-place finish to Giocoso in Secretariat and a seventh-last finish in the Grade 3 DK Horse Nashville Derby Invitational Stakes at Kentucky Downs. Rusty Arnold trainee Gun Runner Stakes winner Plensa has two wins and a second at this mile distance over the grass. Not a scratch, Salamis rounds out the field and is fresh off back-to-back victories, including a last-out score in the Gio Ponti Stakes at Belmont at the Big A. There are three players also eligible: Day and Age, Calvin’s Ride and Jimmy’s Dailys. Jimmy’s Dailys, who bets on dirt, would be making his first career on the field when he takes the field.
Analysis and top contenders:
Tenacious leader enters Bryan Station as one of the lightest runners in the field, making just his sixth career start. After finishing fifth in his career debut as a 2-year-old in a dirt sprint at Saratoga, the Not This Time colt quickly demonstrated his ability, dominating his second start by 4 ¾ lengths in a one-mile race that was taken off the ground at Saratoga. He then moved up to class for his grass debut in the Grade 3 With Anticipation Stakes, where he showed tremendous grit and battled among the horses to finish a match second by a neck to Zulu Kingdom, who went on to win multiple grade stakes, including a Grade 1. Despite that strong effort on the grass, Tenacious Leader’s connections opted to start him in the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, going 1 1/6 miles on dirt roads where a bump at the break jeopardized his trip and led to a sixth-place finish. He then spent 364 days away from racing, resurfacing on the opening day of this Keeneland meet with a sharp 1 1/16 mile victory on the grass, earning him an Equibase Speed Figure of 105. His connections have been extremely popular at Keeneland in recent games. Over the past year (over three meets), Hall of Fame duo Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez have teamed up to win 38% (5-for-13) and finish 54% in-the-money with an 18% return on investment. Tenacious Leader ranks second in the field in late pace rating (114.0), and he appears poised to take a big step forward with a morning line of 12-1 in his second start after his layoff.
Salamis will also make his sixth career start. This Speightstown colt is a half-brother of Segestaa winner of multiple stakes on artificial turf, he has shown steady progress since his debut. After starting his dirt career with a fourth-place finish as an 8-5 favorite at Aqueduct Last November, Salamis found his stride when he switched to the grass, posting consecutive third-place finishes in route races on Gulfstream Park and Keeneland. In that Keeneland effort, he finished just behind World Beater, who has won three stakes since. Returning to New York for his fourth career start, Salamis impressively scored his first career victory at Saratoga, going a mile on grass. He followed that up with a determined victory in the Listed Gio Ponti Stakes at Belmont at the Big A, racing another mile on grass to earn a career-best 102 Equibase Speed Figure. Flavien Prat, who was aboard Salamis for both victories, retains the saddle for trainer Chad Brown. Although Prat is winning at 11% during the Keeneland meet, his broader grass stats remain elite, as he is winning at 27% overall on grass routes and 26% on grass routes over the past year. Salamis returns to Kentucky in top form, recording two wins and a third from three starts at this mile-and-a-half distance on grass. Listed at 6-1 on the morning line, he offers both strong form and attractive value.
Playful is another Not This Time colt and will be his 12the start a career. He took his first win in his third career start by a dominant 6 ¼ lengths Ellis Park Going 1 1/16 miles on grass. Giocoso followed that up with a third-place finish in last year’s Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes on dirt at Churchill Downs before making his first start at Keeneland’s grounds, finishing sixth in the Grade 2 Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes. Giocoso ended his two-year campaign with an allowance win in November 2024 at Churchill on a turf route. As a three-year-old he faced some early challenges on other surfaces, finishing last in the Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes on dirt at Fair ground and then fifth for Bryan Station competitor Final Gambit in the Jeff Ruby Steaks on an all-weather track at Turfway Park. He then took a short break and returned in May to compete in the ultra-competitive Grade 1 American Turf Stakes Presented by Ford at Churchill, where he finished fifth behind Zulu Kingdom. Despite that out-of-the-money finish, Giocoso capitalized on the experience and came straight back to win the Secretariat Stakes over Bryan Station runners Simulate, Antisocial and Dream On. The last time he competed in the Gun Runner Stakes, he finished second to Plensa, a colt he will face again at Bryan Station. Having finished first twice and second once in a one-mile race on artificial turf, Giocoso has proven he can beat his fellow rivals at the graduated stakes level. Jockey Ben Curtis, who has been on board for the last three starts, once again retains the mount and appears to have found the key to achieving Giocoso’s best efforts.
The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figure in comparable races, does Servant (98), Golden afternoon (108), Antisocial (105), Troubleshooting (109), Last Gambit (106), Dream on (112), Game warrior (104), Simulate (102), Plensa (102), Day and age (AE) (106), Calvin’s ride (AE) (105), and Jimmy’s Daily’s (AE) (105).
Win contenders in preference order:
Tenacious leader
Salamis
Playful
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