Super Bowl LX preview: How Drake Maye and Patriots can upset Seahawks

One more time with everything on the line.

The Patriots are 4.5-point underdogs heading into the Super Bowl, a rematch with the Seahawks, who only recently recovered from their infamous defeat in Super Bowl XLIX. Drake Maye is healthy after a shoulder scare landed him on the injury report earlier this week. But the Patriots are still not as healthy as Seattle, which listed just one fullback on its final injury report.

At full strength, the Seahawks are the better and more talented team. Their defense scores the best in the league against the run and pass. They have the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year, Star Wide Receiver Jaxon Smith-Ngjiba and a reborn Sam Darnold at quarterback with good rushers behind him.

So how can the Pats pull off the upset? And will they?

Here’s what to look out for in Santa Clara:

When the patriots run

It’s up to you, Rhamondre.

The Patriots need their starting running back to be at his best against Seattle and break tackles like he has done the last six games. During that stretch, Stevenson broke 24 tackles and averaged 5.7 yards per carry. He also finished the regular season as the leader in Next Gen Stats rush yards above expectation, a metric that measures how often a running back gains more or fewer yards than expected based on his surroundings down to the bottom.

Stevenson must carry the load as the Pats’ offensive line must be outmatched by a defense that allowed 3.8 yards per carry, the fewest in the league, and ranks No. 1 by DVOA against the run. The Seahawks are so good that the gap between them and the No. 2-ranked team is the same between Houston’s run defense and the 14th-best defense in the league.

Expect offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to test Seattle with its groupings of six linemen in attempts to get the Seahawks into their rarely used starting personnel (just four defensive backs). Even though it’s a ploy to set up action against defense-heavy personnel, the Pats’ jumbo packages will be a weapon after rejuvenating their run game late in the year. Schematically, Seattle was slightly weaker on internal runs (such as inside zone and duo), which will be crucial for Stevenson, while rookie TreVeyon Henderson remains a better option on outside runs.

One final key: blocking linebacker Ernest Jones, who was often backed up or erased at the second level on most of the explosive runs his defense allowed this year.

When the Patriots pass

If Maye plays like he has for most of the postseason, the Pats might not have a chance.

The good news: Maye should undergo a positive regression. And the Seahawks, as good as they are, can be busted for some explosive plays. Look for Maye to try some deep shots down the sideline to Kayshon Boutte against outside corner Josh Jobe, who has drawn several pass interference penalties. Maye should also target nickelback Devon Witherspoon, one of the more talented corners in the game who also allowed one of the highest catch rates in the league.

Otherwise, the Pats could try Henderson in space against Seahawks linebacker Drake Thomas, a run-first player. But Maye must be given time. Seattle has four different defenders who have recorded more than 50 pressures this season, including defensive tackles Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy II (seven sacks apiece). Williams and Murphy will emphasize rookie left guard Jared Wilson in pass protection for most of the game, while fellow rookie Will Campbell should have his hands full with edge rushers DeMarcus Lawrence and Uchenna Nwosu.

When the Seahawks run

Which Patriots defensive lineman will appear?

Lately, it’s been the same dominant force that started this season on a historic stretch never allowing a 50-yard rusher. The Pats battered Denver in the AFC Championship Game, thanks largely to defensive tackles Milton Williams and Christian Barmore. They lost some glue when captain and inside linebacker Robert Spillane left with an ankle injury, and Spillane will be at less than 100% if he plays.

That said, a season-ending injury to Zach Charbonnet leaves the Seahawks with just one dangerous runner, and Kenneth Walker is more adept at damaging defenses inside than on the edges, where the Patriots are weakest. Walker rushed for 1,027 yards and five touchdowns this season, showing patience, vision and speed for most of the year. If Seattle hits the Pats for an explosive run, it’s likely Walker will rush to linebacker K’Lavon Chaisson, a frequent target for Patriots opponents this season.

But overall, the Seahawks’ play is far from intimidating, ranking 14th by DVOA and even worse by other advanced metrics, mainly due to an average offensive line with obvious weaknesses. There’s a good chance that both offenses will hit a wall on Sunday.