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Game overview
We’re getting the playoff football a little early in Pittsburgh, with this game being the only true win-and-in game of the weekend.
The Steelers defeated the Ravens four weeks ago, jumping out to a 17-3 lead and holding on for a 27-22 victory despite a second-half push from Baltimore. That Week 14 game marked Aaron Rodgers’ most productive outing of the season, as he threw for 284 yards – more than half of which went to DK Metcalf. Pittsburgh made a clear attempt to attack upfield through Metcalf early in that game, which has particular implications for his suspension for the regular season finale.
On the other hand, it appears Lamar Jackson will return after a one-game absence, but the Ravens will likely want to follow a similar path to victory as they did last week – by putting Derrick Henry to work. Henry’s 36 rushing attempts against Green Bay were more than any other player in a game this season.
Pittsburgh was a different defense with rookie defensive tackle Derrick Harmon on the field. With Harmon healthy, the Steelers are allowing just 3.4 yards per carry on 138 designed runs – a mark that would rank best in the NFL. Without him (256 attempts), that number rises to 4.5 yards per carry, which would rank 27th.
That advantage helps explain why the PFF model shows Pittsburgh as an underdog at +3.5, creating a 4.6% lead. Historically, the Steelers have also thrived in this spot, covering the spread in each of their last six home games against the Ravens, including four outright wins.
RB Kenneth Gainwell, Pittsburgh Steelers: Under 31.5 rushing yards (-114)
Since Week 10, Baltimore has allowed the third-fewest yards per carry of any defense in the NFL on designed runs. The Steelers will likely be forced to attack primarily through the air, and if they do use the ball, Jaylen Warren should be the first option. Warren has outscored Gainwell 26 to 16 over the past two weeks.
Gainwell will likely play a major role in this game, but it’s more likely to happen as a receiver out of the backfield. Limited projected rushing volume and a tough rushing matchup combine for a more than 10% lead over this one at the bottom of the PFF Player Prop Tool.
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