Stock market forecast in the week of September 14 = Trend
ANALYSIS
The outlook of the stock market continues to show a layout for US shares.
The S&P500 ($ Spx) Rose 1.6%. The index is ~ 3% above the 50-day advancing average and ~ 10% above the 200-day advancing average.
We made the week without any institutional sale, and two distribution days fell from the count, so the total is 5; Still high, but not so worrying. Otherwise the Bullish indicators remain.
SPX price and volume card for September 14, 2025
Performance comparisons
The technology sector ($ XLC) Last week better than the consumers staples ($ XLP) Was the worst sector. Consumers staples ($ XLP) “Unsveed” from last week’s improvement, falls back to Bearish bias, while utilities ($ XLU) returned to Bullish.
S&P sector performance from week 37 of 2025
The Momentum Style ($ Mtum) Defeat all Comers last week, while the center of the cap value ($ Ijj) underperformed.
Sector style performance from week 37 of 2025
Bitcoin ($ 4) Returned returned in the win column last week and returned to Bullish bias. The US Dollar ($ Dxy) underperformed.
Acti -class performance of week 37 2025
COMMENTARY
The NFP annual revision reduced 2024 baneng data with 911,000 jobs, with the expected 818,000 revision. It was the big revision in more than 20 years and suggests that the labor market was weaker than previously thought. The revision gives the FOMC the necessary reason to lower interest rates, although it also increases political pressure to do more.
Inflation data was mixed, with producer prices increasing slower than consumer prices. Headline and Core PPI displayed a decrease in prices in August, even after Neerwaartse Revistenations of July figures.
| PPI (J/Y) | Really | Prior | Expected |
| Head | +2.6% | +3.1%* | +3.3% |
| Core | +2.8% | +3.4% | +3.5% |
Headline CPI showed modest increases of head data, while the core remained flat at 3.1%.
| CPI (Y/Y) | Really | Prior | Expected |
| Head | +2.9% | +2.7% | +2.9% |
| Core | +3.1% | +3.1% | +3.1% |
We have the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday this week, with many who expect a rate reduction in view of the weaker labor data (including the bond market). Chairman Powell ‘ran’ from inflation to work last year, so not cutting would be more surprising on this point.
The best for your week!
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Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank or St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, Tradingconics.com, US Bureau or Economic Analysis, US Bureau or Labor Statistics, Tradingconics.com
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