In December and January, approximately 3.7 million will receive provisional income tax assessments for 2026. You may have already received these too. The provisional assessment is an estimate of the tax you have to pay or money you will receive back for 2026. Do you want to know why you receive a provisional assessment and what you should do with it? Then read the answers to six frequently asked questions.
1. What is the provisional assessment?
In December, the Tax Authorities sent more than 1.4 million provisional assessments for 2026 to people who will receive a refund. This month, 2.3 million people will receive a provisional assessment that they must pay. The provisional assessment is an estimate of the tax you have to pay or money you will receive back for 2026. This is based on the most recent information available to the Tax Authorities: the last provisional assessment and/or final income tax assessment.
A provisional assessment with a refund ensures that people receive money back for the current year because they have deductible items, such as mortgage interest deduction or other deductible costs. This reduces their monthly costs and they receive the refund during the year. A provisional assessment to be paid prevents people from having to pay a large lump sum later when the final assessment is made.
2. What is the advantage of the provisional assessment?
A provisional assessment can be useful if you have to pay a large amount or receive money back with the final income tax assessment. If you have to pay, you can do this in eleven installments. If you get your money back, you will receive an advance in twelve monthly installments with a provisional assessment. This allows you to reduce your monthly costs.
3. What should I do if I receive a provisional assessment?
If you receive a provisional assessment, it is important to do three things:
- Check the data carefully: Check whether your personal and financial circumstances are still correct. Pay close attention to changes in, for example, your income or deductions such as mortgage interest deduction.
- Adjust if necessary: You can report changes yourself via My Tax Authorities. Will anything change during 2026? No problem, you can adjust your provisional assessment throughout the year.
- Save the assessment: You will need the provisional assessment later for your income tax return.
4. Why is it important to check the provisional assessment?
The provisional assessment is an estimate of the tax to be paid or refunded for 2026. This is based on the most recent information available to the Tax Authorities: the last provisional assessment and/or final income tax assessment. It may be that something has changed in your personal or financial situation. Consider, for example, purchasing a home, a change in your income, a change in the mortgage interest rate, reaching retirement age or a divorce. As a result, the provisional assessment may no longer reflect your current situation. By carefully checking the information on the provisional assessment, you can prevent a major difference between the provisional assessment and the final assessment. And that means you have to pay or get a large amount back afterwards.
5. How can I check and change my provisional assessment?
It is possible that the information on the provisional assessment is no longer correct. For example, because the amount of deductible items such as mortgage interest has changed or because your personal situation has changed because you are married or divorced.
To check and change, log in to My Tax Authorities. Click on ‘Income tax’ and then on ‘Provisional assessment’. Check your details and adjust the amounts that change. Take your time to change. More information about how to check the provisional assessment and in which situations it is good to change it can be found at the website of the Tax Authorities.
In these situations it is wise to change your provisional assessment:
You bought a house
Have you purchased a home? This then affects how much tax you have to pay. Therefore, include your home in your provisional assessment. This can be done in the ‘Homes and other immovable property’ screen. You can also deduct some costs in your tax return when purchasing a home. Also indicate this on the ‘Mortgages and other debts’ screen under the heading ‘Estimated financing costs’. Read more about the costs that you can deduct if you buy a house.
The interest rate on your mortgage has changed
You have started paying more or less mortgage interest. For example, because you have paid off (part of) your mortgage. Or because you have taken out a new mortgage. In your provisional assessment you then adjust the estimated interest that you pay. You do this in the ‘Mortgages and other debts’ screen. To change, use details from your bank or mortgage provider. Read which one you can deduct refinancing costs.
Notary costs or other costs for transferring a mortgage are deductible. Also indicate this in your provisional assessment in the ‘Mortgages and other debts’ screen. Read which one you can deduct refinancing costs.
You started earning more or less
You will receive a higher or lower income than stated in the 2026 provisional assessment. In the ‘Employment income’ screen you change your provisional assessment. Estimate your income using your pay slip or annual statement. If you can’t figure it out, ask your employer for help.
Do you not yet know whether your income will change? Then you can also report the change later in the year.
You are going or have retired
Will you receive one or more pensions or annuity payments from this year? Or will you receive extra payments this year through a pension or annuity? This then affects how much tax you pay. You can change your provisional assessment in the ‘Pension and other benefits’ screen. To change, use the details of your pension fund or look at ‘My pension overview’.
It is also wise to change your provisional assessment in these situations:
- You received more or fewer deductible items, such as healthcare costs or spousal support
- You gave more or less money to charities
- You are married, have signed a cohabitation contract or live together
- You are divorced or separated
- Your tax partner has died
Once you have reported your change, the Tax Authorities will do a check. You will usually receive a new provisional assessment afterwards. This takes 6 to 8 weeks, but usually goes faster. The Tax Authorities may have questions. Or does not adopt all changes. You will then be contacted. After your explanation, the Tax Authorities will check whether your change can still be implemented.
6. Why, as an AOW beneficiary, have I received a provisional assessment for 2026?
The Tax Authorities sometimes send AOW recipients a provisional assessment to be paid without their request. This is often unexpected for people who are self-employed. The Tax Authorities only send a provisional assessment to be paid if they expect that the AOW beneficiary will have to pay a large amount of tax in the coming year. For example, because people receive several pensions in addition to the AOW or have income from business or employment.
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