The race for the Capocannoniere is one of the most exciting parts of each Serie A season. It is a personal struggle that is being fought within a team whose skill has to score the most goals and keep a consistent record until the end of the season. Last year the highest goalscorer struggle was definitely won by Napoli player, Mateo Retegui. But with his move to Saudi Arabia, the race for the Capocannoniere 2025/26 is wide open.
This season is no different, there are new tactics, new partnerships and opportunities that all play a role in deciding who ends at the top of the score table. Although a large transfer can still influence the results, the current contenders already show us that they might have a chance.
Based on the statistics of the players, the respective teams and overall fitness, these are the players that we think they will most likely win the Capocannoniere in 2025 when the season ends in May.
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Before we get into the best contenders for the Capocannoniere of this season, we have the top scorer analyzed for the 2024/2025 – Mateo Retegui season.
Mateo Retegui’s stunning 2024/25 season
In recent years, the Serie A -ranking has been ranked dominated by established strikers such as Immobile, Osimhen and Lautaro Martinez. The real surprise of the 2024/25 season was Mateo Retegui, who won the top goalscorer -awards that played for Atalanta.
The journey of Mateo Retegui to become Series A’s top scorer is unique. Unlike many stars that come through the European Youth Academies, Retegui learned to improve his skills in his native country, Argentina. He spent the early years of his career playing for Boca Juniors and later Club Atlético Tigre, where he developed a reputation as a powerful shot. His time in the smaller clubs prepared him for a life -changing football career in Italy.
The 2024-25 season belonged to Mateo Regui. Although he was the same year that Napoli surprised everyone by winning the Scudetto, Retegui’s incredible goals for Atalanta was what the headlines really grabbed. The Italian Center Forward yielded 25 league goals, a full six goals more than its closest competitor, to win the coveted Capocannoniere Award. His achievements were so impressive that it earned him a huge transfer of € 65 million earlier this month to Saudi Pro League Club Al-Qadsiah.
What makes his performance even more remarkable is that it was only his second season in Italy. His first year at Genoa was solid but unpectacular, with seven goals in 29 performances, a period impeded by an injury of three months. Under manager Alberto Gilardino he was asked to work hard in an urgent system, for which many current and defensive efforts required. Even then his natural talent was clear. He showed the instinct of a real striker in the penalty area and the willingness to shoot when he saw a glimpse of the goal.
His move to Atalanta and manager Gian Piero Gasperini was the perfect next step. The Gasperini system is known to get the best out of attackers, and Retegui was no exception. He has always been strong in the air, but in Atalanta he sharped his movement and ended in the box. His 25 goals only made him the second Atalanta player who once ended as the top scorer of Series A, in the footsteps of Filippo Inzaghi in the 1996-97 season.
His departure for Saudi Arabia leaves a vacuum.
The best contenders for the Capocannoniere 2025/26
Predicting a top scorer is always difficult before the season starts. A surprise transfer can still change everything. Based on the current squadrons and the form of last season, however, these five players stand out as the most likely candidates to win the prize.
Jonathan David (Juventus)
The Canadian striker is a new face in Serie A, signed by Juventus on a free transfer after his contract in Lille had ended. He scored 109 goals with 30 assists in 232 performances and in the last Ligue 1 season he scored 16 goals. The 25-year-old immediately steps into a huge role as the main goal of Juventus after the departure of Dusan Vlahovic.
David brings a proven track record in the field of goals from France. Even in what was considered to be the second lowest scores season in Lille, he still managed a respectable 16 league goals. His consistency in Ligue 1 never doubted. The big question for David is not about his quality, but about the team behind him. Juventus is often criticized for a conservative playing style. Will they create sufficiently clear opportunities for him to really compete for the top scorers prize? If the team can offer the service, David has the clinical lead to be in the conversation.
Moise Kean (Fiorentina)
Fiorentina’s Moise Kean ended the 2024/25 season with 19 competition goals, making him second in the goals in the goals behind Mateo Regui. Undoubtedly his best year so far, characterized by continuity and decisiveness, has evoked expectations for the 2025/26 season.
He is currently one of the players who are most considered the top scorer of Matchplug. His excellent form, regularity in Fiorentina and attacking possibilities make him a serious competition for the Capocannoniere.
Rafael Leao (AC Milan)
Last season was a disaster for AC Milan, which ended for the first time in a decade in a decade. Part of the problem was a breakdown in the relationship between star player Rafael Leao and the previous coaches.
Leao has never been a player who is known for massive target numbers; His game is about speed, dribbling and creating for others. The new Allegri system, in combination with the current lack of a central striker from Milan, could, however, force Leao to take more scoring responsibility. If he can add more goals to his game without losing his creative spark, he has the pure talent to challenge the Capocannoniere. He is a dark horse, but a very dangerous one.
Rmunuk uai (naopoo)
Romelu Lukaku won another scudetto in his first season in Napoli, but it was not his most efficient personal campaign. He scored 14 league goals, because the team often trusted other players such as Scott McTominay to make a difference in attack.
The reason he is so high on this list is a simple name: Kevin De Bruyne. The arrival of the Belgian playmaker in Napoli could change everything for Lukaku. The two have a fantastic understanding from their years together with the Belgian national team. De Bruyne’s genius for providing perfect assists can be exactly what Lukaku needs to return to his best target score form. If their connection works as well as for Belgium, the target numbers of Lukaku are almost certain to rise.
Lautaro Martinez (Inter Milan)
It is almost impossible to imagine that Lautaro Martinez has two quiet seasons in a row. The Argentinian striker was the winner of Capocannoniere in 2023/24, but his form fell last season. He contributed to the failed title defense of Inter, scored only 12 goals in 31 performances and often looked from the pace.
That is why he is the favorite to bounce back. He is too good player to stay long. With Inter, the new season expects angry and motivated to reclaim the title, Lautaro will be central to everything they do. He is the most important man, the captain and the center of their attack. He knows how to score goals in the Serie A, and he will be desperate to make up for last year’s disappointment. Marcus Thuram is currently the early leader in the clubhouse, with 2 goals in Inter’s first 2 games.
Although this is a very small sample size, it shows that the race has already been switched on and that surprises can always happen in the long and exciting marathon of a Serie A season.
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