“I like to dream
‘Cause you can make your dreams mine
TIn the saga of Middletown’s favorite son, we all sang like Kenny Nolan, circa 1976. The knob on the Cincinnati Reds hot stove, which normally remained in the OFF position, turned ON briefly and reached a sustained simmer as everyone waited for a full boil that unfortunately never came.
The cold water thrown on the stove came in the form of the shift in discipline that Phil Castellini promised three years ago during his infamous Opening Day comments, forgotten but apparently still in play. Moustakas and Akiyama’s missteps and the game’s economic system, which was only made worse by Covid, and then the collapse of Diamond Sports Group, gave birth to what is ‘The New Reds Way’.
We were told this explicitly a long time ago.
It is important to recognize that the unfettered pursuit of Schwarber would always be a complete retreat from a change in philosophy that eschews risk in favor of building almost strictly from within, while respecting a budget that requires no further commitment from stakeholders. Does anyone really believe that ownership would now change course again and take a new direction after standing in front of the audience and talking about ‘shifting the discipline’, with a lockout on the horizon?
And yet they almost did, or so we thought. Forget the nonsensical opinion, based on fan disappointment, that insists Schwarber’s offer was never serious. If the only offer that is considered serious is one that rivals the successful offer from the Phillies, then those people don’t know how baseball – and Dave Dombrowski in particular – works.
The Philadelphia president’s history of working for big-budget owners — Wayne Huizenga, John Henry, Mike Ilitch and now John Middleton — has given him the freedom to outbid whoever and whenever he wants. Philadelphia would never let their power hitter leave. Dombrowski waited to see what the market looked like and then dove in, knowing the Phillies’ window is NOW and as Phillies GM Preston Mattingly said the day Schwarber re-signed, “we have an owner who likes to spend some money.”
The Reds always had to know that Middleton was willing to spend ‘dumb money’. Philly viewers knew itat.
Writer Joe Sheehan weighed in on the Pirates’ four-year/$120 million offer, calling it “arguably an overpayment for the 33-year-old DH, who has one four-win season through age 32 last year and two more three-win seasons in his career.”
Indeed, there was a lot of risk involved in giving a player on the wrong side of 30 a multi-year, $30 million AAV deal. Now that he’s produced the best season of his career, there’s no guarantee Middletown’s favorite son will ever do that again. The Reds would have paid an aging player for past performances that have proven time and time again to be a high risk, and they would do so knowing that a lost season in 2027 is a real possibility. Because even though baseball may stop, aging doesn’t stop.
Sheehan also said this in his recent newsletter:
“It seems harder for teams that have both low turnover and low success to entice free agents. That doesn’t bother me that much. You would expect unsuccessful companies to have difficulty attracting talent in any way. One of my objections to both player drafts and cap systems is that they force players to work for some of the worst organizations in their field because they don’t have the freedom to sign with the best. Money is a way around this problem. We saw that the A’s Overpaid for Luis Severino The Tigers probably did this with Javier Baez last year. The Pirates may have to do the same to get Schwarber.’
The late actor Albert Finney once played a great but fading Shakespearean stage actor who said to his supporting players, “The lights on the stage are for me and me alone. You have to find what light you can.” The Reds are now moving in a different direction on the baseball stage, trying to find out what light they can get before the curtain falls on this offseason.
SOh, here we are again, spectators standing at the roulette table, begging the players for the money to push in all the chips, betting on red despite all evidence to the contrary.
While the offer to Schwarber would suggest the owner was willing to budget well beyond the salary cap, as Nick Krall continues to reiterate, you have to wonder what that offer actually was. Are large amounts of deferred money involved? Did this mean the Reds would stick to their PHIL philosophy of “matching payroll with resources” by trading the salaries of Brady Singer and Tyler Stephenson for compensation? How do you use the money offered to Schwarber to someone else without finding a willing participant who will agree to similar restrictions? Would Pete Alonso have taken deferred ducats to sign for the Reds? Did his subsequent Oriole contract include that?
A competitive offer to Schwarber that means leaving the bullpen vulnerable and trading away pitching, be it a rotation guy like Brady Singer or Nick Lodolo, while counting on a lot of roster health to mask a continued lack of depth, is a recipe for disaster. The offense has been so bad that popular sentiment only wants to improve that side of the ledger, ignoring the reality of trading 3-2 losses for 8-7 losses.
Maybe Kyle Schwarber wanted to come home, but not at the expense of stripping the roster and watching from the Reds season-ending dugout in September as former teammates celebrated a division title at Citizens Bank Ballpark. Maybe it was none of those things. Maybe more money just won the day, as usual.
Schwarber explained everything to local media in Philadelphia:
“Right after the season was over, I was able to sit down with Dave (Dombrowski, president of baseball operations) and we had a really good conversation,” Schwarber said. “Right before we went home, (owner) Mr. (John) Middleton was able to come to our house and we were able to spend quite a bit of time talking about the Phillies and his family and what the future looks like for us here.
“Those were conversations that I just never forgot. You go through a season, you start having different conversations with different teams. I took notes. And once it was all said and done, I was able to really sit down and make the decision. John is determined to win and Dave wants our organization to keep pushing for a World Championship. We want to continue to win the East. What more can you ask for a player?”
All of this feels like it’s playing out exactly the way its owner wants it to, heading toward a season that ends with a padlock at the end of it. And if all goes as expected, the players’ union will say to Phil Castellini and his small-market brethren: “Let them eat their cake.”
Because where else is Phil going?
#Risk #Reward #Reds #Kyle #Schwarber #Conundrum #Redleg #Nation