Ripple’s XRP enters familiar zone that previously led to an 850% rally

XRP has spent 70 days below its 50-week SMA, consistent with previous cycles leading up to major rallies, as analysts keep an eye on key support levels.

Analysts who track the assets say this phase often ends with a breakout. Previous patterns show a similar setup before XRP made major price moves.

Pattern repeats over multiple cycles

Crypto analyst Steph Is Crypto has outlined this recurring behavior in three previous cycles. In 2017, XRP traded below its 50-week SMA for 70 days and then rose more than 200%. In 2021, a 49-day decline below the same line led to a 70% gain. Then in 2024, after 84 days below, XRP rose by more than 850%.

Remarkably, the token has now repeated its 70-day period below the SMA, with no breakout confirmed yet. The chart of Steph Is Crypto shows price compression below the moving average, followed by upward expansion in previous examples. The same setup now seems to be forming. He noted:

“Right now, XRP is in the same historical window that previously marked the end of the downtrend and the beginning of the expansion.”

Furthermore, XRP’s current 2025 chart also draws comparisons to previous setups from 2016 and 2024. In both years, the price followed a three-wave correction labeled ABC. The structure lasted 120 to 150 days and ended in an outbreak. The 2025 chart shows the same shape and now reaches 150 days.

This phase is characterized by slow, sideways action and low volume. The structure is similar to what we saw before previous rallies. Steph is Crypto noted,

“Nothing about this looks exciting. And this is usually what XRP looks like right before it moves.”

Fractal Model provides levels and timing

Analyst Eggag Crypto has updated his fractal model, which he says currently tracks the behavior of XRP with an accuracy of about 82%. They shared a range of potential price levels if the model was valid: $3.20, $8.00, $15–16, and $20–27. These are related to how XRP continues to follow the same path.

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They added that a break below $1.60 would weaken the model. A move below $1.30 would invalidate it. The fractal is treated as a living model, not as a confirmed prediction. The time range for possible expansion is June to October 2026.

Short-term action and risk factors

XRP is priced at $1.86 at the time of writing, down 2% in the past 24 hours and 1% in the past week. Analyst CryptoWZRD said the price needs to stay above $1.98 to remain in bullish territory. They also mentioned support at $1.82 and resistance near $2.75.

On the cautious side, analyst Ali Martinez expressed concern about a possible short-term correction, warning that XRP could fall more than 55% if certain levels fail. He pointed to technical signs that could open a path to $0.80, especially if rejection continues near key resistance.

Furthermore, XRP inflows to centralized exchanges have increased, as previously reported by CryptoPotato. Binance remains responsible for the majority of XRP volume. Higher currency inflows are often seen as a sign that traders are preparing to sell.