Republican Matt Van Epps predicted the winner of Tennessee’s closely watched special election for a seat in the House of Representatives

Republican Matt Van Epps is the projected winner of the closely watched special election for Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District U.S. House of Representatives seat, according to the Associated Press, averting a Democratic upset in a closer-than-expected race.

With 99% of the votes counted, Van Epps led Democratic candidate Aftyn Behn by about 9 percentage points (53.9% to 45%), according to the AP. President Donald Trump won the district by 22 points in the 2024 election.

In a victory speech to supporters on Tuesday night, Van Epps praised Trump, saying his support “made the difference,” and tried to sow panic within his own party that despite his victory, Democrats’ slim margins could portend vulnerabilities for Republicans ahead of the midterms.

“Tonight we showed that running from Trump is the way to lose,” Van Epps said. “Running with Trump is how you win. Our victory was made possible because supporters of President Trump voted.

In a post on social media, Trump congratulated Van Epps on his “BIG congressional victory” and called it “another great night for the Republican Party!!!”

Behn, the Democratic nominee, came within striking distance of her Republican opponent in a deeply red district as Democrats sought to portray the overperformance – which follows last month’s Democratic victories in the governor’s races in Virginia and New Jersey – as a referendum on Trump’s second term and evidence of an impending “blue wave” in 2026.

Election Tuesday capped a whirlwind final week of campaigning in a race that was closer than expected and turned into a national battleground.

During the campaign, political heavyweights from Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson to former Democratic Vice Presidents Kamala Harris and Al Gore campaigned for their respective candidates as both parties poured millions of outside dollars into the race — with Republicans outpacing Democrats.

The all-out battle for the seat highlights how important both sides of the aisle view any opportunity to gain advantage in the House of Representatives as Republicans try to maintain their razor-thin majority before the 2026 midterm elections.

The predominantly rural 7th Congressional District stretches from Tennessee’s northern border with Kentucky to its southern border with Arkansas, and includes parts of liberal Nashville.

The special election was intended to fill the vacant seat once held by now-former Rep. Mark Green, a Republican who resigned in July.

Van Epps’ victory Tuesday followed uncertainty about what turnout would look like on Election Day, because voting patterns are typically unpredictable in special elections — especially those that follow the Thanksgiving weekend.

As the projected winner of the special election, Van Epps’ first term will be shortened; he will have to run for the seat again in next year’s midterm elections.

Despite the loss, Democrats seized on the results as evidence of their momentum.

In a CNN interview before the AP called the race, Behn said her campaign exceeded expectations and left the door open to run again next year for the seat in 2026.

Speaking to supporters Tuesday night, Behn said: “This is not the end of our story. It’s not even close,” Behn said. “Because what we’ve built here in this district, this grassroots movement, is part of something bigger that’s happening across the South, and across this entire country.”

She added, “We may not have won tonight, but we changed the narrative of what’s possible here, and we’re far from done.”

Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin celebrated Democrats’ performance in Tuesday’s race, attributing it to a focus on the cost of groceries and housing.

“What happened in Tennessee tonight makes it clear: Democrats are on the attack and Republicans are in trouble,” Martin said. “Aftyn Behn’s overperformance in this Trump+22 district is historic and a flashing warning sign for Republicans heading into the midterm elections. Aftyn focused her campaign on lowering grocery, housing and health care costs for Tennessee families.

In the House of Representatives, the Republican Party’s victory in Tennessee tonight will make it easier for Johnson to push Trump’s legislative agenda through the House.

Van Epps’ victory adds another seat to Republicans’ current 219 seats in the House of Representatives, which will increase to 220 once he is sworn in.

The Democrats have 213 seats.

However, Johnson will also lose a Republican vote in January The resignation of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene comes into effect.