Recognition of a distorted opportunity in the deployment of San Vicente

Saturday $200,000 San Vicente (G2) op Santa Anita Park has drawn a small but talented field of five horses. Many bettors will expect Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert to win the seven-furlong dirt dash for the 15th time, but I predict a mild upset.

Baffert has fielded two horses in search of his sixth win at San Vicente in the past seven years. #1 Greenwich village a debut winner at Los Alamitos, is a promising prospect, but Baffert’s top-ranked contender is No. 3 Butane .

Submissions: San Vicente S. (G2)

Santa Anita Park, Saturday January 10, 2026, race 5

• Grade II
• 7f
• Filthy
• $200,000
• 3 years
• 2:00 PM (local)

It’s hard to beat everything Buetane has accomplished. He made his debut in a six-furlong special weight on August 3 Seain which he paced in second place before taking the lead and prevailing by 3 1/2 lengths. He then took on the seven-furlong Hopeful (G1) and finished second to Ted Noffey, the likely 2025 champion two-year-old male, after enjoying success in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1).

But it’s worth noting that Buetane finished 8 1/2 lengths behind Ted Noffey in the Hopeful, and the rest of the Hopeful form hasn’t held up so well. Curtain Call finished just a head behind Buetane in third place, but in his next start he finished sixth by 18 lengths in Champagne (G1).

Additionally, Buetane has yet to run particularly fast on the Beyer Speed ​​Figure or the Brisnet Speed ​​Scale. In fact, his career best 83 is Beyer 10 points lower than the 93 posted by #4 Recognizemeplz in a quick first win at Santa Anita.

Acknowledgemeplz is a convincing threat. His two sprint performances were promising. He made his debut in a five-furlong special weight at Del Mar on June 13, pushing the pace before weakening to finish second. He was beaten just 2 1/4 lengths by Desert Gate, who has since won the Best Pal (G3) and finished second in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and American Pharoah (G1). In addition, Acknowledgemeplz moved 5 3/4 lengths clear of third-place Proletariat, a subsequent winner who has since finished third in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf (G3) and Zuma Beach (G3).

After being away from racing for 4 1/2 months, Acknowledgemeplz returned to action in a 6 1/2-furlong girls special weight event on October 25 at Santa Anita. This time he led all the way and held off a late bid from Blacksmith to gain the upper hand by three-quarters of a length, earning the aforementioned 93 Beyer. Blacksmith flattered the form by later finishing second by 1 1/4 lengths in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Speaking of the Los Alamitos Futurity, Acknowledgemeplz contested that 1 1/16-mile race but failed to bring its A-game. Nothing went quite his way. He missed a scheduled prep run in the Bob Hope S. after the race was canceled due to insufficient entries, and then failed to show his usual early speed in the Los Alamitos Futurity, being beaten by several rivals in the lead. He drifted heading into the first turn, raced wide in third and eventually tired to finish fourth by 16 1/4 lengths.

I’m optimistic that moving back to seven furlongs will spark a turnaround at Acknowledgemeplz. Adding blinkers should sharpen his early speed and help him return to pace-setting tactics. If Acknowledgemeplz returns to the form of his first win, he can stop Buetane and pull off a surprise at the San Vicente.

For third place I choose number 2 So happy . The son of 2015 male sprinter Runhappy made his debut in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Del Mar on Nov. 22. The early pace was not particularly fast, but So Happy nonetheless rallied from fourth to beat Winston Ave (a first starter from Baffert’s shed) by three-quarters of a length.

So Happy reached the finish in a solid 1:16.09 and earned an 83 Beyer. He has positive areas for improvement in his second start, and I think he’ll make a favorable fourth- or fifth-place trip before closing out the homestretch to clinch a spot in the trifecta.

Selections
1st: Erkenmeplz
2nd: Butane
3rd: So happy

Now it’s your turn! Who do you like in San Vicente?

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