Another holiday season has arrived, and with it more family conversations about the Rays trading their key players and stars. Now that some of the dust has settled from the recent trades, here’s a look at evaluations of the Rays, two recent trades of Brandon Lowe and Shane Baz from around the baseball blogging world.
- Pirates receive: 2B Brandon Lowe, LHP Mason Montgomery, OF Jake Mangum
- Receive Astros: RHP Mike Burrows
- Receive rays: OF Jacob Melton, RHP Anderson Brito
Baseball prospectus – Profit for pirates
Andrew Mearns called this deal “all more of the same from Tampa Bay” and joked that “there won’t be many familiar faces in St. Pete” when the Trop reopens. Mearns clearly didn’t think much of the Rays’ return.
When the above three-team transaction was reported Friday evening, there was a collective slow blink in the baseball social media sphere. That was partly due to the fact that trades between three teams were so rare and took a while to process. But it was also partly because we all came to grips with the idea that, for once, the Pittsburgh Pirates might have won a big trade.
RJ Anderson graded the three-team Brandon Lowe trade a B, crediting Tampa Bay with picking up two of the more interesting prospects in the Astros system, but he found some flaws, such as Melton potentially not adding an immediate punch to the Rays lineup lost in the deal, or sacrificing many years of Montgomery while adding a pitcher who might be a reliever.
In a previous era, Brito would have already been given a life in relief because of his size and concern. He may end up there anyway, but the Rays have every reason to work with him on throwing more strikes as a starter.
The Rays spent Friday morning doing what the Rays do: turning their recognizable names of declining verifiable years into multiple contributors
Bradford Doolittle writes, “The combined potential of Brito and Melton makes this a win,” especially considering the Rays can easily slot Carson Williams into the lineup in Brandon Lowe’s place. He also gave the Astros a D+ for their role in the three-way deal.
Brandan Gawlowski called it “a day to replenish the farm,” while wondering if taking Brandon Lowe’s $11.5 million salary off the books will lose its luster if he also has to deal with pre-arb MLB contributors like Mangum and Montgomery.
The safe bet is that they get two quality role players in this trade, but it wouldn’t be a shock if one or both exceeds that projection.
I’m not inclined to call this deal a winner or a loser for any team […] The Rays managed to shed payroll while adding to their already large pool of young players. There’s something for everyone here, and this trade helped each team solidify its short-term strategy.
Joe Sheehan – “I think it’s fine”
Sheehan wrote in his newsletter that the trade would have been a “wash” had the Rays not added Mangum and Montgomery to the deal, but also noted that the Rays “won’t miss” either player.
The Rays just didn’t give up much here: a pitcher they no longer trusted, a hitter who can’t field, and a gloveman who can’t hit. They got a better version of the latter with more upside in Melton, and a pitcher with paths to success as a leverage reliever or mid-rotation starter. They assumed a lot more variance here, as both Melton and Brito could go to zero. It’s a risk they can afford.
- Orioles receive: RHP Shane Baz
- Receiving Rays: OF Slater du Brun, C Caden Bodine, RHP Michael Forret, OF Austin Overn, Competitive Balance Round A pick
Baseball prospectus – “straightforward”
Craig Goldstein sees the Baz trade as a typical roster churn made possible by the signing of Steven Matz.
The Orioles were in dire need of not only rotation depth, but also quality, and found both in an intradivision deal with Tampa Bay. Baz comes across as a bit contradictory, but certainly an improvement […] but it’s hard to shake the idea that the price they paid per floor unit you wanted to use was quite high and that the organization still needs to commit some additional resources to gain an advantage in what looks to be yet another brutally competitive AL East
RJ Anderson didn’t post a formal figure, but when I asked for his opinion, he noted Bodine’s Alejandro Kirk profile, a combination of three solid prospects, and the lack of confidence for Baz to stay healthy, making this a good deal for the Rays.
Anderson had written articles about Bodine and de Brun prior to the 2025 draft, which you can read here.
“This is a lot of good prospects for three years in Baz.”
David Schoenfield wrote that the Rays crop of prospects “looks like a great return for the Rays from an Orioles team that was desperate,” and returns the Rays organization to its usual position as a top farm system. He also gave the Orioles a C for overpayment.
Eric Longenhagen praised the Baz trade for rebalancing the Rays farm system, which was depleted not by credentials but by underperformance in 2025, writing how “they will once again have one of the deeper farm systems in all of baseball” when organizational-level evaluations are released.
They traded Baz at the peak of his value, after his one season where he showed starter-quality staying power, for what feels like a nice chunk of Baz’s remaining team control per year. If they can fill Baz’s spot in the rotation internally, this will be a good deal for them twelve months from now.
Joe Sheehan – Just wait
Sheehan’s writing on the Baz deal seemed disappointing, noting that there was too little playing time to evaluate the prospects and that none so far seemed to fit into the Rays’ top five. Instead, he encouraged the evaluators to “come back in 10 months.”
As for the Rays, they’re always in a roster crunch, so adding some players who aren’t close to 40-man consideration helps them.
#Reactions #Rays #trades #Brandon #Lowe #Shane #Baz