The qualifying round of the 2026 Winter Olympics is over and our quarter-finals are on the schedule. Although we didn’t experience any of the big upsets in the qualifying round, there are some great matches on the schedule, and I think we could see at least one upset in the quarter-finals.
Slovakia vs Germany
Slovakia shocked everyone by winning its group, alongside Sweden and Finland. Juraj Slafkovsky has added to his incredible past Olympic performances with three goals and three assists in just three games. Iowa Wild goaltender Samuel Hlavaj also put on a show and is one of the biggest surprises of the tournament.
In addition to these two remarkable performances, the rest of the young players of this Slovak team also showed up. Dalibor Dvorsky, the St. Louis Blues’ 10th overall pick in the 2023 Draft, has scored two goals and two assists for a total of four points in three games. Simon Nemec also had two assists on the backend.
This marks the beginning of an exciting era in Slovak hockey, following the 2014 defeat to Slovenia, which left Jaroslav Halak mourning what he believed was the end of Slovak hockey.
After a spectacular group stage, Slovakia was given a day off and a match against Germany, which will have to play the second half of a back-to-back.
Germany have not shown as much as most had hoped heading into the tournament. Despite their mediocre group stage, they were given an easy match against France in the qualifying round, which they easily handled: 5-1.
As excited as I am about the future of this Slovakian team, I think we will see the quarterfinals in this match. In my qualifying round predictions I talked about how disappointing Germany has been, but none of that matters now.
While Slovakia has a deeper lineup, Germany clearly overpowers them when it comes to star power with Leon Draisaitl, Tim Stutzle and Moritz Seider.
Germany will need their NHLers to take over the game to make up for the lack of depth in their lineup, and Philipp Grubauer will need to be sharp.
In the latter five head-to-head matches between Germany and Slovakia, Slovakia has won three. It’s important to note that only one of those involved NHL players, and that’s the game where Germany won while still missing Draisaitl, Stutzle and Seider.
The head-to-head statistics show the depth differences between the two countries, which shows how important it is for the German stars to break through.
I just have a feeling that Draisaitl will have his best game of the tournament, and that he will lead the way to an upset over Slovakia.
Finland vs Switzerland
Finland started the tournament brutally with a shock 4-1 defeat to Slovakia. They managed to bounce back and beat their arch-rivals, Sweden, and ended their group stage by becoming the only team to eliminate Italy with a resounding 11-0 win.
While we are yet to see the best from Mikko Rantanen, something that is very encouraging for the Finns is that Juuse Saros has improved after a poor opening match against the Slovaks.
Saros has the ability to steal every game he plays in when he is at his best, which is terrifying for anyone who has to play Finland in a single elimination game. I also like their depth in the middle about this team. We’ll have to see if Anton Lundell suits up next lost the match against Italy with an illness, but if he is in the line-up, it is a huge boost.
Switzerland defeated Italy in the qualifying round with a 3-0 win, but I think their tournament ends here. Their victory over the Czech Republic in extra time, after seeing perhaps their best player, Kevin Fiala, go down with a horrific injury at the end of the match against Canada, was very impressive.
Related: Kings’ Kevin Fiala undergoes season-ending surgery after Olympic injury
Unfortunately, I think this is where we see Fiala’s absence really hindering the Swiss. It will be an exciting match, but I think that even though the Swiss often play better than the sum of their parts, Finland will overpower them.
I don’t think Switzerland will score enough against a Finnish team that can suffocate you and has elite goaltending.
Canada vs Czech Republic
This is the first rematch we will see at the Olympics after Canada suffered a 5-0 loss to the Czech Republic in the group stage.
Canada has yet to experience any real setbacks in the tournament, winning all three matches comfortably and exiting the group stage with a plus-17 goal margin.
It’s hard to give a really in-depth analysis of Canada because of how smoothly everything went. The only real storyline is Brad Marchand’s injury and what appeared to be Nathan MacKinnon’s injury at the end of the game against Switzerland. It doesn’t look like either will miss this match against the Czech Republic.
We will also have to see if Josh Morrissey is available after leaving the match against Switzerland. He played the last match against the Czech Republic and it would be a big loss if he cannot play.
Goaltending will also be a question mark for Canada until the tournament is over. Binnington allowed a soft second goal against France, but I think he has played well so far.
The Czech Republic earned its rematch against Canada with a narrow 3-2 victory over Denmark in the qualifying round. The victory continued the story that nothing came easy for the Czech Republic throughout the tournament. They even trailed France 3–2 after allowing three unanswered goals in five minutes before breaking the match open again. They also had to tie the score with just over two minutes left in the third against Switzerland just to get a point out of that match.
If the Czech Republic are to complete this upset, their stars will need to perform the best they have done all tournament, and Dostal will need to play his best game in the second half of a back-to-back.
I don’t see that happening. I think the day off is a huge benefit for Canada because some guys are in trouble. It’s also a big advantage because a back-to-back in the Olympics is so different than a back-to-back in the NHL. The pace at which these players play is something they will never experience again, and it takes its toll on the body.
I know the Czech Republic has been the boogieman for the Canadians in international hockey lately, but I think we see Canada going to the semi-finals.
USA vs Sweden
This is my most anticipated game. Qualifying rounds are fun because it’s your first taste of single-game elimination in the tournament, but the quality of the matchups isn’t great.
The atmosphere around both teams was a bit different. Swedish coach Sam Hallam has drawn criticism for his selection decisions, and the American questions about the squad selection have brought storylines into the tournament.
I’ve seen a lot of people express frustration with Sweden beating this American team. I’m not one of them.
I’m not on this Swedish team. The goaltending was poor and I don’t trust their coaching staff to put their team in positions to win. I think they are by far the third most talented in this tournament, but if you have bad coaching and bad goaltending, that’s enough to ruin a season or tournament.
I thought it was crazy that they had the confidence to let Rasmus Andersson, Jesper Bratt and Filip Gustavsson play against Latvia. I’ve discussed the back-to-back factor in these matches, and it seems Sweden took this into account ahead of their match against Latvia.
They won, so it’s actually a good thing they rested them so they’re fresh against the US, but it was still shocking to me.
The United States have not been impressive themselves so far, but have still won all three of their matches against Latvia, Denmark and Germany with a goal difference of plus-11. I trust Connor Hellebuyck more than Gustavsson or Jacob Markstrom, even with his reputation for not showing up in big moments. It will be a close match, and Sweden is capable of winning it, but I still think the US will go to the semi-finals.
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