With Cease and Imai off the market, the only two pitchers left from MLBTR’s top 10 are lefties Framber Valdez And Ranger Suarez. Both are currently shortlisted among the most talented left-handed starters in the game, with solid track records of success in both the regular season and postseason. Both players needed some time to get their careers into full swing; both became full-time starters at age 26, though Valdez reached that point during the shortened 2020 season so he didn’t get a full slate of starts until the following year. Suarez also got half a season’s worth of starts before receiving a full workload, as he joined the Phillies rotation on a permanent basis in August 2021 with twelve starts down the stretch and never looked back. Since joining their respective rotations full-time, each has proven to be a reliable front-end arm.
In terms of overall track record, Valdez has the edge. Valdez has an extra year as a starter under his belt, but even by that metric, volume is a clear separator. His 153 games since joining the Astros aren’t far ahead of the 116 starts Suarez has made if you include that extra year, but Valdez’s 973 innings of work completely dwarf Suarez’s 654 frames. In terms of on-field results, things are much closer, but Valdez still has the edge with a 3.23 ERA and 3.38 FIP over Suarez’s 3.39 ERA and 3.45 FIP. Suarez’s 22.2% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate, and 51.3% groundball rate are all solid. But Valdez’s has the advantage in punchouts and grounders, with only slightly more free passes: 23.8% strikeout rate, 8.0% walk rate and 61.5% ground ball rate.
That combination of volume and results may paint the picture that Valdez is clearly the superior arm, but there are more factors to consider. Suarez and Valdez enjoyed nearly identical platform seasons, with a 3.59 ERA and 3.57 FIP for Suarez versus Valdez’s ERA of 3.66 and 3.37 FIP. The pair’s strikeout rate was also largely the same (23.3% for Valdez and 23.2% for Suarez), but Suarez took a big step forward in terms of walk rate, issuing free passes at a clip of just 5.8% to Valdez’s 8.5%.
That ability to take fewer walks is certainly attractive, and it’s fair to say Suarez is trending upward, while Valdez could be starting to show signs of decline. That’s especially relevant given the age difference between the two; Suarez is two years younger than Valdez and will enter free agency at age 30, instead of 32. MLBTR predicted in November that both pitchers would sign five-year deals. Based on these predictions, Suarez would be paid through age 34, while Valdez would be on the books through age 36 with an identical contract. Suarez would also be cheaper, at least according to MLBTR, with a $115 million projection for Suarez compared to a $150 million projection for Valdez.
Additionally, Suarez’s postseason resume is nearly spotless, with a career 1.48 ERA in the playoffs. Valdez, on the other hand, has a postseason ERA of 4.34. That comes in double the innings (85 frames to Suarez’s 42 2/3 innings), but the older left-hander’s work has been particularly poor in recent years; he has posted an 8.27 ERA in his last four playoff starts. A strong postseason resume isn’t typically a major factor in the kind of nine-figure deals Valdez and Suarez are seeking, but it could easily serve as a tiebreaker between two comparable pitchers for some clubs. Another soft factor that could play a role in distinguishing the two is an incident last season where Astros was the catcher Caesar Salazar was hit by a pitch from Valdez in a cross-up situation. Speculation arose at the time that the pitch was deliberately caused by Valdez, although both players afterwards declared it an accident.
How do MLBTR readers view the two southpaws, and which would you rather have over the next five years? Are Valdez’s superior volume and results enough to overcome Suarez’s advantages in age and postseason performance? Have your say in the poll below:
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